Real Sociedad San Sebastian — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.4% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 67.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Real Sociedad San Sebastian and Atletico Madrid meet in LaLiga in a fixture that looks evenly matched on the available assessment. The moderate confidence level points to a contest where neither side has a decisive advantage, although the X2 signal gives Atletico Madrid some protection against a home win. The balance of the matchup suggests that game management and the ability to handle changing phases could be important.
The scoring outlook is more open, with both teams likely to score. That points to a match in which attacking contributions from both sides may shape the result rather than a one-sided defensive contest. A draw remains a credible scenario, while Atletico Madrid have a slight analytical edge within the X2 reading. Real Sociedad San Sebastian should still have a realistic route to success, particularly if they can turn their home setting into sustained pressure. Overall, the expected pattern is competitive and potentially high-scoring, with the result likely to remain close.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.