Real Sociedad San Sebastian — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 72.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.5% / 61.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
12th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 03.09.2026 home Celta 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 26.08.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
- 21.08.2026 away Betis 0:1
Atletico Madrid
9th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Villarreal 2:2
- 19.08.2026 home Malaga 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Villarreal 1:5
This season: Real Sociedad San Sebastian at home vs Atletico Madrid away
| Metric | Real Sociedad San Sebastian · at home | Atletico Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.32 | 0.98 |
| xG against per match | 0.56 | 1.15 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.03.2026 Atletico Madrid 3:2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 04.01.2026 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:1 Atletico Madrid
- 10.05.2025 Atletico Madrid 4:0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 06.10.2024 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:1 Atletico Madrid
- 25.05.2024 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:2 Atletico Madrid
- 08.10.2023 Atletico Madrid 2:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Sociedad San Sebastian host Atletico Madrid in a LaLiga meeting that is expected to produce an open, competitive contest. The available assessment points toward a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests neither side is expected to approach the match purely through caution, and the balance could shift during the ninety minutes.
Atletico Madrid have a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the difference between the teams is not decisive. Real Sociedad San Sebastian should remain capable of creating danger at home, particularly in a match where attacking moments are expected from both sides. The overall signal favours Atletico Madrid avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible outcome given the evenly contested nature of the matchup.
What matters before kick-off
Julián Álvarez ruled out for Atlético Madrid against Real Sociedad
Atlético Madrid forward Julián Álvarez was left out of the traveling squad after sustaining a muscle strain during Saturday's training session. He joins Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sørloth on the sidelines for Diego Simeone's side.
Atlético Madrid seeking response after back-to-back away losses
Atlético Madrid travel to San Sebastián aiming to rebound after consecutive away defeats, having fallen to Athletic Club in LaLiga and 2-1 to Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.