Athletic Bilbao — Elche CF: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.0% |
| 12 | 81.9% | |
| X2 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.6% / 63.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Athletic Bilbao
10th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away Celta 2:0
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Sevilla 1:3
- 23.05.2026 away Real Madrid 2:4
Elche CF
19th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 home Sociedad 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Santander 2:3
- 23.08.2026 home Barcelona 0:5
- 17.08.2026 away La Coruna 1:1
- 23.05.2026 away Girona 1:1
This season: Athletic Bilbao at home vs Elche CF away
| Metric | Athletic Bilbao · at home | Elche CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| xG against per match | 0.72 | 1.03 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.02.2026 Athletic Bilbao 2:1 Elche CF
- 19.10.2025 Elche CF 0:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 28.05.2023 Athletic Bilbao 0:1 Elche CF
- 11.09.2022 Elche CF 1:4 Athletic Bilbao
- 03.04.2022 Athletic Bilbao 2:1 Elche CF
- 16.08.2021 Elche CF 0:0 Athletic Bilbao
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Athletic Bilbao go into this LaLiga meeting with a clear edge over Elche CF, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The available assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with Athletic Bilbao more likely to control the overall balance and create the stronger platform for victory. Elche CF will need to remain compact and make efficient use of their opportunities if they are to disrupt that expectation.
The projected scorelines of 2:0, 1:0 and 2:1 all point towards a narrow or controlled home win rather than an open contest. That range also reflects some uncertainty over how often Elche CF can contribute on the scoresheet. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so the match could develop either as a clean-sheet performance from Athletic Bilbao or as a game where Elche CF find one opening. Overall, the hosts are clearly stronger, but the margin may remain manageable.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Form
Athletic Club entered the fixture on back-to-back LaLiga victories, having defeated Celta Vigo 2-0 and Atlético Madrid 3-0. Elche CF suffered three consecutive league defeats coming into the match, including a 3-2 home loss against Real Sociedad.
Head-to-Head Record
Prior to this meeting, Athletic Club held an all-time top-flight head-to-head record against Elche CF of 24 wins and 13 losses in 54 encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.