Sevilla FC — Rayo Vallecano: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 68.5% | |
| X2 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.05.2026 away Celta 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Real Madrid 0:1
- 13.05.2026 away Villarreal 3:2
- 09.05.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 04.05.2026 home Sociedad 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.05.2026 away Alaves 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Villarreal 2:0
- 14.05.2026 away Valencia 1:1
- 11.05.2026 home Girona 1:1
- 03.05.2026 away Getafe 2:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.03.2026 Sevilla FC 1:1 Rayo Vallecano
- 28.09.2025 Rayo Vallecano 0:1 Sevilla FC
- 01.03.2025 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Sevilla FC
- 24.11.2024 Sevilla FC 1:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 05.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano 1:2 Sevilla FC
- 07.10.2023 Sevilla FC 2:2 Rayo Vallecano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sevilla FC and Rayo Vallecano look evenly matched ahead of their LaLiga meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be decided by small details, such as control of midfield, the quality of chances created, and how well each team manages periods without possession.
The match is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. A draw appears to be a credible outcome, while a narrow result for either side also fits the profile of the game. The 1X signal gives Sevilla FC some protection at home, but it does not remove the competitive nature of the fixture. Rayo Vallecano should remain capable of making the match difficult, particularly if they can keep the game open and avoid conceding early.
What matters before kick-off
Sevilla's pre-season result
Sevilla FC concluded their pre-season friendly preparations on August 8, 2026, with a 2-1 defeat away to German side Bayer Leverkusen.
Rayo Vallecano's final friendly result
Rayo Vallecano finished their summer pre-season fixtures on August 8, 2026, with a 3-0 defeat away to English side Ipswich Town.
Head-to-head record in LaLiga
Sevilla FC are unbeaten in their last seven LaLiga matches against Rayo Vallecano.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.