Sevilla FC — Rayo Vallecano: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 68.5% | |
| X2 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.4% / 96.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sevilla FC and Rayo Vallecano look evenly matched ahead of their LaLiga meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be decided by small details, such as control of midfield, the quality of chances created, and how well each team manages periods without possession.
The match is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. A draw appears to be a credible outcome, while a narrow result for either side also fits the profile of the game. The 1X signal gives Sevilla FC some protection at home, but it does not remove the competitive nature of the fixture. Rayo Vallecano should remain capable of making the match difficult, particularly if they can keep the game open and avoid conceding early.
What matters before kick-off
Sevilla's pre-season result
Sevilla FC concluded their pre-season friendly preparations on August 8, 2026, with a 2-1 defeat away to German side Bayer Leverkusen.
Rayo Vallecano's final friendly result
Rayo Vallecano finished their summer pre-season fixtures on August 8, 2026, with a 3-0 defeat away to English side Ipswich Town.
Head-to-head record in LaLiga
Sevilla FC are unbeaten in their last seven LaLiga matches against Rayo Vallecano.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.