Espanyol Barcelona — Levante UD: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.4% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Espanyol Barcelona host Levante UD in LaLiga with a slight but credible edge in the pre-match assessment. The home side’s advantage points toward a controlled contest in which Espanyol Barcelona may be better placed to manage the important phases, particularly with home conditions in their favour. However, the assessment does not indicate a wide gap between the teams, so Levante UD remain capable of making the match competitive.
The expected scoring pattern is medium rather than extreme, suggesting a game that could develop through measured attacks instead of sustained end-to-end pressure. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, making the defensive performance of each side important. The most consistent overall reading is therefore protection for the home side against defeat, with a narrow Espanyol Barcelona win or a draw both fitting the available signals.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.