Espanyol Barcelona — Levante UD: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 70.6% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Espanyol Barcelona host Levante UD in a LaLiga meeting that projects as a relatively balanced contest with a slight edge for the home side. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, suggesting that neither team is expected to dominate the game completely. Espanyol Barcelona should benefit from playing at home, but Levante UD remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in several different ways. A controlled draw is among the plausible outcomes, while narrow home success is also consistent with the overall assessment. The most likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, reflecting the limited separation between the teams and the expectation of a measured game. Overall, Espanyol Barcelona have the clearer edge, but Levante UD should remain within reach if they maintain their structure and take advantage of their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
2026/27 LaLiga Season Opener
Espanyol and Levante UD face off on 16 August 2026 at the RCDE Stadium in the opening round of the 2026/27 LaLiga season.
Registration Issues for Levante
Levante players Hugo Sotelo and Yanis Musuayi miss the league opener against Espanyol due to pending registration issues.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.