RC Celta de Vigo — CA Osasuna: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.7% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 51.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
RC Celta de Vigo host CA Osasuna in a LaLiga fixture where the available signals point to a slight advantage for the home side. The assessment carries high confidence, but it does not suggest a wide separation between the teams. Home advantage is the main factor behind the preference for RC Celta de Vigo, while the overall outlook remains competitive rather than one-sided.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring judged to be a coin flip. That leaves several plausible paths through the game: 1:1 represents the balanced scenario, while 1:0 and 2:0 reflect the home side making its territorial advantage count. CA Osasuna remain capable of keeping the contest close, particularly if they limit the hosts' opportunities, but the 1X signal indicates that RC Celta de Vigo are favoured to avoid defeat. The most measured reading is therefore a controlled home lean in a match that could remain finely balanced for long periods.
What matters before kick-off
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna match postponed
The La Liga opening match between Celta Vigo and Osasuna originally scheduled for August 16 was postponed due to a fungal outbreak on the pitch at Estadio de Balaidos. The game was rescheduled for August 27.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.