Racing Santander — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 72.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.3% / 17.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.05.2026 home Cadiz 4:1
- 24.05.2026 away Malaga 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Valladolid 4:1
- 10.05.2026 away Leganes 2:1
- 03.05.2026 home Huesca 4:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Ath Madrid 5:1
- 17.05.2026 away Vallecano 0:2
- 13.05.2026 home Sevilla 2:3
- 10.05.2026 away Mallorca 1:1
- 02.05.2026 home Levante 5:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Racing Santander and Villarreal CF meet in LaLiga with the visitors carrying a slight edge. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with Villarreal CF better positioned to avoid defeat. Racing Santander should still have enough attacking threat to keep the game open, particularly as both teams are considered likely to score.
The overall expectation is for a medium-scoring encounter. A draw remains a plausible outcome, with 1:1 among the likely scorelines, but Villarreal CF also have a credible route to victory in a match that could finish 1:2 or 0:2. Racing Santander will need to stay organised without the ball and make their attacking opportunities count, while Villarreal CF can focus on using their slight advantage to control key phases. The balance favours the visitors, although the scoring outlook suggests Racing Santander should remain involved until the final stages.
What matters before kick-off
LaLiga opening weekend clash
Racing Santander host Villarreal CF on 16 August 2026 at El Sardinero, marking Racing's return to LaLiga following their promotion from Segunda División.
Previous Copa del Rey encounter
In their most recent competitive head-to-head match in December 2025 in the Copa del Rey, Racing Santander defeated Villarreal CF 2–1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.