Racing Santander — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.7% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.0% / 24.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Santander host Villarreal CF in a LaLiga fixture that points towards a competitive but moderately open contest. The assessment gives Villarreal CF a slight edge, although the expected balance of the match leaves room for Racing Santander to remain involved. Neither side is identified as overwhelmingly dominant, so the home team’s ability to stay organised and make use of its opportunities could be important.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring judged to be an uncertain possibility rather than a clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 0-1 and 1-2, which reflects a narrow range between a draw and a controlled Villarreal CF victory. Racing Santander may need to limit the visitors’ attacking momentum, while Villarreal CF will look to turn its marginal advantage into a decisive contribution in the final third.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.