Deportivo Alaves — Getafe CF: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.8% |
| 12 | 65.5% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves have a slight but clear edge over Getafe CF in this LaLiga meeting. The overall expectation is for a cautious contest, with limited space and relatively few clear scoring opportunities. That points toward a match shaped by defensive organisation and patience rather than sustained attacking momentum.
The scoring outlook is low, and a clean sheet is considered likely, making a narrow home result or a draw the most plausible directions. The central scorelines are 0:0, 1:1 and 1:0, which underline how fine the margins may be. Deportivo Alaves should be marginally better placed to control the important phases at home, but Getafe CF remain capable of keeping the game close if they maintain their defensive structure.
What matters before kick-off
LaLiga Season Opener
Deportivo Alaves host Getafe CF at Estadio de Mendizorroza in the opening matchday of the 2026/27 LaLiga season.
Head-to-Head Streak
Getafe CF enter the fixture unbeaten in their last four competitive encounters against Deportivo Alaves.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.