Seattle Sounders — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.4% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 74.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Austin FC 1:3
- 17.07.2026 home Portland Timbers 1:5
- 25.05.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Minnesota United 0:0
- 23.07.2026 away FC Cincinnati 3:4
- 24.05.2026 away San Diego FC 4:2
- 17.05.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:1
This season: Seattle Sounders at home vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC away
| Metric | Seattle Sounders · at home | Vancouver Whitecaps FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–2 | 3–3–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.86 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.09.2025 Seattle Sounders 2:2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 09.06.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:0 Seattle Sounders
- 03.10.2024 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0:3 Seattle Sounders
- 19.05.2024 Seattle Sounders 1:1 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 21.04.2024 Seattle Sounders 0:2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 08.10.2023 Seattle Sounders 0:0 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Seattle Sounders host Vancouver Whitecaps FC in an MLS meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives Vancouver Whitecaps FC a slight edge, with high confidence in that reading, while also indicating a strong likelihood that both teams will score. That combination suggests a match where neither side is expected to remain passive, and where attacking phases could play a central role.
Seattle Sounders should have opportunities in front of their home crowd, but Vancouver Whitecaps FC appear better placed to avoid defeat. The overall scoring outlook is high, making a tight but productive game a reasonable expectation rather than a low-tempo encounter. The market signal also favors Vancouver Whitecaps FC in the sense that the visitors are projected to win or draw. Seattle Sounders will therefore need to manage the visitors' attacking threat while making the most of their own chances.
What matters before kick-off
Pedro de la Vega likely out for rest of season
Seattle Sounders midfielder Pedro de la Vega suffered a quad strain and is expected to miss the remainder of the 2026 season.
Availability issues for both teams
Both sides face key missing players: Seattle is without Paul Arriola, Jordan Morris, and Yeimar Gómez Andrade, while Vancouver has Brian White and Kwasi Poku out injured.
Cascadia Cup opportunity for Vancouver
Vancouver Whitecaps FC can clinch a record ninth Cascadia Cup if they secure at least one point in this match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.