Colorado Rapids — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 80.3% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Colorado Rapids come into this MLS meeting with a clear edge over Sporting Kansas City, although the level of confidence is moderate rather than decisive. The available assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side overall, making a Colorado Rapids victory the leading outcome. Sporting Kansas City nevertheless remain competitive enough to keep the match open, particularly in a game expected to produce several scoring opportunities.
The forecast also leans toward both teams finding the net, which suggests a contest with attacking intent rather than a tightly closed affair. That combination gives Colorado Rapids the stronger position, but it leaves room for Sporting Kansas City to influence the game if they take their chances. A narrow home win fits the overall reading, while a draw remains a plausible alternative if Sporting Kansas City can match the hosts' attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
Sporting Kansas City midfielder Lasse Berg Johnsen is suspended for the match. Colorado Rapids will be without goalkeeper Zack Steffen, midfielder Ted Ku-DiPietro, defender Jackson Travis, and forwards Mamadou Billo Diop and Kimani Stewart-Baynes.
Colorado Rapids recent result
In their final match prior to this fixture, Colorado Rapids secured a 1-0 victory over Austin FC courtesy of a late stoppage-time penalty from Rafael Navarro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.