Colorado Rapids — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 80.3% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Austin FC 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away St. Louis City 0:1
- 23.07.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
- 24.05.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Real Salt Lake 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
- 26.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:4
- 23.07.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
- 17.07.2026 away St. Louis City 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home New York Red Bulls 1:2
This season: Colorado Rapids at home vs Sporting Kansas City away
| Metric | Colorado Rapids · at home | Sporting Kansas City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–0–3 | 2–0–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.13 | 0.78 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.13 | 3.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Sporting Kansas City 1:4 Colorado Rapids
- 31.08.2025 Sporting Kansas City 4:2 Colorado Rapids
- 05.07.2025 Colorado Rapids 1:2 Sporting Kansas City
- 19.09.2024 Sporting Kansas City 4:1 Colorado Rapids
- 05.07.2024 Colorado Rapids 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 09.04.2023 Sporting Kansas City 0:1 Colorado Rapids
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Colorado Rapids come into this MLS meeting with a clear edge over Sporting Kansas City, although the level of confidence is moderate rather than decisive. The available assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side overall, making a Colorado Rapids victory the leading outcome. Sporting Kansas City nevertheless remain competitive enough to keep the match open, particularly in a game expected to produce several scoring opportunities.
The forecast also leans toward both teams finding the net, which suggests a contest with attacking intent rather than a tightly closed affair. That combination gives Colorado Rapids the stronger position, but it leaves room for Sporting Kansas City to influence the game if they take their chances. A narrow home win fits the overall reading, while a draw remains a plausible alternative if Sporting Kansas City can match the hosts' attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
Sporting Kansas City midfielder Lasse Berg Johnsen is suspended for the match. Colorado Rapids will be without goalkeeper Zack Steffen, midfielder Ted Ku-DiPietro, defender Jackson Travis, and forwards Mamadou Billo Diop and Kimani Stewart-Baynes.
Colorado Rapids recent result
In their final match prior to this fixture, Colorado Rapids secured a 1-0 victory over Austin FC courtesy of a late stoppage-time penalty from Rafael Navarro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.