Colorado Rapids — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Colorado Rapids come into this MLS meeting with a clear but not overwhelming analytical advantage over Sporting Kansas City. The available assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the matchup should not be treated as straightforward. Colorado Rapids are the more likely team to control the overall direction of the game, particularly with home advantage included in the evaluation.
The scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring contest expected and both Colorado Rapids and Sporting Kansas City considered likely to find the net. That combination leaves room for an open match rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. The main score patterns favor a Colorado Rapids victory, while a draw also remains a credible alternative. Sporting Kansas City therefore have a realistic route into the contest, but Colorado Rapids hold the stronger position in the pre-match analysis.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.