Los Angeles FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Los Angeles FC have a slight edge over San Diego FC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the teams. The hosts are positioned as the more likely side to control the outcome, but San Diego FC remain capable of making the game competitive rather than simply defending for long periods.
The available outlook points towards an open, high-scoring match in which both teams are likely to score. That expectation makes the balance of the game particularly important: Los Angeles FC may have the stronger overall position, while San Diego FC could create enough attacking pressure to stay involved. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home win or a draw, with 2-1 and 1-1 standing out alongside a possible 2-0 result. Overall, the match appears to favour Los Angeles FC without removing the possibility of a closely contested encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Return to MLS Regular Season Action
Los Angeles FC and San Diego FC return to MLS regular-season play following their participation in the 2026 Leagues Cup.
LAFC's Standings Position
Los Angeles FC enters the match against San Diego FC at BMO Stadium tied atop the Western Conference table with 34 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.