Los Angeles FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.6% |
| 12 | 80.6% | |
| X2 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Los Angeles FC come into this MLS meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over San Diego FC. The qualitative assessment points toward the hosts as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match may remain competitive rather than becoming one-sided. Los Angeles FC should look to impose their attacking rhythm, while San Diego FC will need to stay organised and make the most of their opportunities in transition.
The outlook is for an open, high-scoring contest, with both teams likely to find the net. That creates a potentially demanding game for both defences, particularly if the pace increases after the opening stages. Los Angeles FC have the stronger overall signal, but San Diego FC retain a credible route into the match through their attacking threat. The main expectation is therefore a home advantage in a game where neither side can rely solely on defensive control.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.