Los Angeles FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:0
- 23.07.2026 home Real Salt Lake 3:1
- 18.07.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 3:0
- 25.05.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Minnesota United 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home FC Dallas 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 2:4
- 17.05.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:3
This season: Los Angeles FC at home vs San Diego FC away
| Metric | Los Angeles FC · at home | San Diego FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–2 | 1–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.90 | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 03.05.2026 San Diego FC 2:2 Los Angeles FC
- 01.09.2025 Los Angeles FC 1:2 San Diego FC
- 30.03.2025 San Diego FC 3:2 Los Angeles FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Los Angeles FC have a slight edge over San Diego FC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the teams. The hosts are positioned as the more likely side to control the outcome, but San Diego FC remain capable of making the game competitive rather than simply defending for long periods.
The available outlook points towards an open, high-scoring match in which both teams are likely to score. That expectation makes the balance of the game particularly important: Los Angeles FC may have the stronger overall position, while San Diego FC could create enough attacking pressure to stay involved. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home win or a draw, with 2-1 and 1-1 standing out alongside a possible 2-0 result. Overall, the match appears to favour Los Angeles FC without removing the possibility of a closely contested encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Return to MLS Regular Season Action
Los Angeles FC and San Diego FC return to MLS regular-season play following their participation in the 2026 Leagues Cup.
LAFC's Standings Position
Los Angeles FC enters the match against San Diego FC at BMO Stadium tied atop the Western Conference table with 34 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.