San Jose Earthquakes — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes have a slight edge over Saint Louis City SC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment leans toward the hosts avoiding defeat, but it also leaves room for a draw or a narrow result in either direction.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring game in which both San Jose Earthquakes and Saint Louis City SC are likely to find the net. That makes the attacking contribution of both sides more significant than any expectation of a tightly controlled defensive battle. San Jose Earthquakes may have the marginal advantage at home, but Saint Louis City SC remain capable of keeping the game level or turning it into a close away result.
What matters before kick-off
San Jose Earthquakes Player Availability
According to the official MLS player status report, Nonso Adimabua, Earl Edwards Jr., and DeJuan Jones are ruled out for San Jose Earthquakes due to lower body injuries.
St. Louis CITY SC Player Availability
St. Louis CITY SC are without Kyle Hiebert (hip), Brendan McSorley (ankle), and Célio Pompeu (knee) due to injuries.
Previous Meeting This Season
In their earlier MLS encounter this season on April 25, 2026, San Jose Earthquakes secured a 3-2 away victory against St. Louis CITY SC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.