San Jose Earthquakes — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes have a slight edge over Saint Louis City SC in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with room for uncertainty. The outlook favours the hosts, but not by a wide margin, so Saint Louis City SC should remain competitive throughout the match.
The main expectation is an open game with opportunities at both ends. Both teams are considered likely to score, which makes a high-scoring encounter more plausible than a tightly controlled one. A draw remains a realistic possibility, with 1:1 among the plausible scorelines, while 2:1 and 2:0 reflect the potential for San Jose Earthquakes to turn their home advantage into a narrow victory.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.