San Jose Earthquakes — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.7% / 54.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:4
- 26.07.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Orlando City 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Portland Timbers 3:1
- 17.05.2026 home FC Dallas 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Colorado Rapids 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
- 17.07.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 3:2
- 23.05.2026 home Austin FC 3:0
This season: San Jose Earthquakes at home vs Saint Louis City SC away
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes · at home | Saint Louis City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–3 | 2–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.89 | 0.89 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Saint Louis City SC 2:3 San Jose Earthquakes
- 21.09.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 1:3 Saint Louis City SC
- 31.05.2025 Saint Louis City SC 2:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 22.09.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 1:2 Saint Louis City SC
- 04.07.2024 Saint Louis City SC 2:0 San Jose Earthquakes
- 25.06.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 1:2 Saint Louis City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes have a slight edge over Saint Louis City SC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment leans toward the hosts avoiding defeat, but it also leaves room for a draw or a narrow result in either direction.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring game in which both San Jose Earthquakes and Saint Louis City SC are likely to find the net. That makes the attacking contribution of both sides more significant than any expectation of a tightly controlled defensive battle. San Jose Earthquakes may have the marginal advantage at home, but Saint Louis City SC remain capable of keeping the game level or turning it into a close away result.
What matters before kick-off
San Jose Earthquakes Player Availability
According to the official MLS player status report, Nonso Adimabua, Earl Edwards Jr., and DeJuan Jones are ruled out for San Jose Earthquakes due to lower body injuries.
St. Louis CITY SC Player Availability
St. Louis CITY SC are without Kyle Hiebert (hip), Brendan McSorley (ankle), and Célio Pompeu (knee) due to injuries.
Previous Meeting This Season
In their earlier MLS encounter this season on April 25, 2026, San Jose Earthquakes secured a 3-2 away victory against St. Louis CITY SC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.