Real Salt Lake — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.4% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Real Salt Lake have a slight edge over Minnesota United FC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with room for different outcomes. The hosts are not presented as clearly superior, so Minnesota United FC should remain competitive, particularly in a game where the overall expectation points toward an open, high-scoring encounter.
Both teams are likely to find the net, making the balance between defensive control and attacking efficiency important. Real Salt Lake may have the stronger position in the overall assessment, but Minnesota United FC have a credible path to staying involved if they can take advantage of the chances created. The most plausible shape is a close match rather than a one-sided performance, with the possibility of the result being decided by narrow margins late in the game.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.