Real Salt Lake — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away St. Louis City 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:2
- 23.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:3
- 23.05.2026 away Minnesota United 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Colorado Rapids 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home San Diego FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:2
- 23.05.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away New England Revolution 1:2
This season: Real Salt Lake at home vs Minnesota United FC away
| Metric | Real Salt Lake · at home | Minnesota United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 7–0–1 | 4–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 89% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 78% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.05.2026 Minnesota United FC 1:1 Real Salt Lake
- 24.08.2025 Real Salt Lake 1:3 Minnesota United FC
- 30.03.2025 Minnesota United FC 2:0 Real Salt Lake
- 03.11.2024 Minnesota United FC 1:1 Real Salt Lake
- 30.10.2024 Real Salt Lake 0:0 Minnesota United FC
- 03.10.2024 Real Salt Lake 0:0 Minnesota United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Salt Lake have a slight edge over Minnesota United FC in this MLS meeting, with the overall assessment strongly favouring the hosts. That advantage is not expected to produce a one-sided contest, however, as the available signals point towards an open match in which both sides should have opportunities in the final third.
The scoring outlook is high, making an entertaining and competitive encounter more likely than a cautious one. Minnesota United FC retain enough attacking potential to find the net, while Real Salt Lake appear better placed to control the key phases and make their home advantage count. The central expectation is therefore that Real Salt Lake avoid defeat, with a narrow home win or a draw fitting the balance of the analysis. Performance in transition and the ability to manage the game after scoring could be decisive, particularly if the match develops into the open exchange suggested by the scoring profile.
What matters before kick-off
Leagues Cup results
Real Salt Lake entered the match following a 3-0 Leagues Cup win against FC Juárez to advance to the knockout round. Minnesota United FC concluded their Leagues Cup campaign with a 3-1 win over Atlante FC.
Head-to-head streak
Minnesota United FC have remained unbeaten in their last nine encounters with Real Salt Lake. Their previous meeting in May 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.