Real Salt Lake — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Real Salt Lake have a slight edge over Minnesota United FC in this MLS meeting, with the overall assessment strongly favouring the hosts. That advantage is not expected to produce a one-sided contest, however, as the available signals point towards an open match in which both sides should have opportunities in the final third.
The scoring outlook is high, making an entertaining and competitive encounter more likely than a cautious one. Minnesota United FC retain enough attacking potential to find the net, while Real Salt Lake appear better placed to control the key phases and make their home advantage count. The central expectation is therefore that Real Salt Lake avoid defeat, with a narrow home win or a draw fitting the balance of the analysis. Performance in transition and the ability to manage the game after scoring could be decisive, particularly if the match develops into the open exchange suggested by the scoring profile.
What matters before kick-off
Leagues Cup results
Real Salt Lake entered the match following a 3-0 Leagues Cup win against FC Juárez to advance to the knockout round. Minnesota United FC concluded their Leagues Cup campaign with a 3-1 win over Atlante FC.
Head-to-head streak
Minnesota United FC have remained unbeaten in their last nine encounters with Real Salt Lake. Their previous meeting in May 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.