New York City FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.9% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:1
- 23.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 24.05.2026 away Nashville SC 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 3:2
- 26.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home New York Red Bulls 3:1
- 25.05.2026 away Inter Miami 4:6
- 17.05.2026 home Columbus Crew 1:1
This season: New York City FC at home vs Philadelphia Union away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | Philadelphia Union · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–3 | 1–1–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.30 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 78% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Philadelphia Union 1:2 New York City FC
- 24.11.2025 Philadelphia Union 0:1 New York City FC
- 05.10.2025 Philadelphia Union 1:0 New York City FC
- 13.04.2025 New York City FC 1:0 Philadelphia Union
- 19.09.2024 New York City FC 1:5 Philadelphia Union
- 16.05.2024 Philadelphia Union 1:2 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York City FC and Philadelphia Union look evenly matched ahead of this MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts and visitors comparable prospects, with only moderate confidence in the overall reading. That points to a contest likely to be decided by small moments rather than a clear difference in quality.
The attacking outlook suggests an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. A 1-1 draw is one plausible scenario, while a narrow result in either direction also fits the assessment, including 1-2 or 2-1. Philadelphia Union have a slight edge in the market signal, but it is not strong enough to outweigh the broader view that the teams are closely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Multiple absences for New York City FC
New York City FC head coach Pascal Jansen will be without nine players against Philadelphia Union. Key attacker and top scorer Nicolás Fernández Mercau is among those unavailable due to yellow card accumulation.
Return to MLS regular season action
Both clubs return to MLS play following their eliminations from the Leagues Cup, with NYCFC suffering a 2-1 defeat to Necaxa and Philadelphia Union bowing out after a 2-0 loss to Santos Laguna.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.