New York City FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.9% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York City FC and Philadelphia Union look evenly matched ahead of this MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts and visitors comparable prospects, with only moderate confidence in the overall reading. That points to a contest likely to be decided by small moments rather than a clear difference in quality.
The attacking outlook suggests an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. A 1-1 draw is one plausible scenario, while a narrow result in either direction also fits the assessment, including 1-2 or 2-1. Philadelphia Union have a slight edge in the market signal, but it is not strong enough to outweigh the broader view that the teams are closely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Multiple absences for New York City FC
New York City FC head coach Pascal Jansen will be without nine players against Philadelphia Union. Key attacker and top scorer Nicolás Fernández Mercau is among those unavailable due to yellow card accumulation.
Return to MLS regular season action
Both clubs return to MLS play following their eliminations from the Leagues Cup, with NYCFC suffering a 2-1 defeat to Necaxa and Philadelphia Union bowing out after a 2-0 loss to Santos Laguna.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.