New York City FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.4% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York City FC hold a slight edge over Philadelphia Union in this MLS meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available scoring outlook suggests a medium-scoring match, with neither side strongly separated from the other in attacking potential.
The main scoreline possibilities point toward a narrow game. A draw is represented by 1:1, while 2:1 and 1:0 indicate that New York City FC could make home advantage count if they manage the decisive moments more effectively. Philadelphia Union remain capable of taking something from the match, and the assessment of both teams scoring is evenly balanced. Overall, the hosts have the marginal preference, but the match appears open to several outcomes.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.