Austin FC — FC Dallas: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Austin FC and FC Dallas appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests a competitive contest in which control may shift between the teams rather than remain with one dominant side.
The match is expected to produce a medium-scoring pattern, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible scenario, with 1:1 among the plausible scorelines, while 1:2 and 2:1 also reflect the narrow balance between the sides. The X2 signal gives FC Dallas a slight edge in terms of avoiding defeat, but the gap is limited and Austin FC should remain capable of making the game close. A result decided by a single goal, or no winner at all, fits the overall profile.
What matters before kick-off
Austin FC availability report
According to Austin FC's player availability report, Mikkel Desler is ruled out with an Achilles injury, while Owen Wolff is sidelined due to an ankle injury.
Austin FC advance in Leagues Cup
Prior to resuming MLS regular season play, Austin FC reached the 2026 Leagues Cup quarterfinals after defeating Club América in a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.