Austin FC — FC Dallas: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 26.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:3
- 23.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away St. Louis City 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away San Diego FC 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Portland Timbers 2:2
- 24.05.2026 away Colorado Rapids 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 3:2
This season: Austin FC at home vs FC Dallas away
| Metric | Austin FC · at home | FC Dallas · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–2 | 4–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.09.2025 FC Dallas 2:0 Austin FC
- 17.08.2025 Austin FC 1:1 FC Dallas
- 18.07.2024 FC Dallas 3:1 Austin FC
- 12.05.2024 FC Dallas 2:1 Austin FC
- 31.03.2024 Austin FC 2:1 FC Dallas
- 27.08.2023 FC Dallas 1:0 Austin FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Austin FC and FC Dallas appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests a competitive contest in which control may shift between the teams rather than remain with one dominant side.
The match is expected to produce a medium-scoring pattern, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible scenario, with 1:1 among the plausible scorelines, while 1:2 and 2:1 also reflect the narrow balance between the sides. The X2 signal gives FC Dallas a slight edge in terms of avoiding defeat, but the gap is limited and Austin FC should remain capable of making the game close. A result decided by a single goal, or no winner at all, fits the overall profile.
What matters before kick-off
Austin FC availability report
According to Austin FC's player availability report, Mikkel Desler is ruled out with an Achilles injury, while Owen Wolff is sidelined due to an ankle injury.
Austin FC advance in Leagues Cup
Prior to resuming MLS regular season play, Austin FC reached the 2026 Leagues Cup quarterfinals after defeating Club América in a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.