Austin FC — FC Dallas: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.5% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 67.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Austin FC and FC Dallas appear evenly matched ahead of this MLS meeting, with neither side holding a clearly defined advantage. The available assessment points towards a competitive contest in which the balance could shift during the match, making the home setting important for Austin FC but not decisive. FC Dallas should also have enough quality to remain involved and challenge for a positive result.
The main expectation is an open game with opportunities at both ends. Austin FC are likely to create attacking moments in front of their own supporters, while FC Dallas should be capable of responding rather than focusing solely on containment. Both teams are considered likely to score, and the overall profile suggests a higher-scoring encounter than a cautious stalemate. With the teams closely matched and confidence only moderate, the result may depend on which side makes better use of its chances.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.