Chicago Fire — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.2% |
| 12 | 79.2% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Chicago Fire enter this MLS meeting with a slight edge over Portland Timbers, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The available outlook points toward an open match, with Chicago Fire carrying the stronger overall position but Portland Timbers retaining a realistic chance of making the game difficult.
Both teams are likely to score, which supports the expectation of an active attacking encounter. The high-scoring profile leaves room for momentum to shift during the match, and Portland Timbers should have opportunities if they can exploit spaces in the Chicago Fire defence. Chicago Fire appear better placed to come out on top, but the balance of the matchup means a draw remains a credible alternative.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.