Chicago Fire — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Charlotte 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away New York City 1:3
- 23.07.2026 away Inter Miami 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Toronto FC 2:1
- 16.05.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 23.07.2026 home FC Dallas 2:2
- 17.07.2026 away Seattle Sounders 5:1
- 24.05.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 1:3
This season: Chicago Fire at home vs Portland Timbers away
| Metric | Chicago Fire · at home | Portland Timbers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 6–0–3 | 2–1–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.06.2023 Portland Timbers 1:2 Chicago Fire
- 15.08.2019 Portland Timbers 3:2 Chicago Fire
- 31.03.2018 Chicago Fire 2:2 Portland Timbers
- 06.07.2017 Portland Timbers 2:2 Chicago Fire
- 29.05.2016 Chicago Fire 1:1 Portland Timbers
- 08.08.2015 Portland Timbers 1:0 Chicago Fire
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chicago Fire come into this MLS meeting with the stronger overall outlook against Portland Timbers. The assessment gives the hosts a clear advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this is not an entirely one-sided contest. Chicago Fire are expected to have the better platform to control the match and create the more convincing attacking situations, while Portland Timbers remain capable of keeping the game competitive.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That points to a match shaped by attacking intent rather than a cautious tactical battle, with Portland Timbers potentially able to exploit spaces even if Chicago Fire carry the greater threat. The most prominent scoreline is 2:1 to Chicago Fire, while 1:1 and 3:1 also reflect the range of plausible outcomes. Overall, the hosts hold the clearer edge, but the likelihood of goals from both sides makes a narrow and competitive result more credible than a routine victory.
What matters before kick-off
Player Availability for Matchday 20
Chicago Fire are without André Franco and Mbekezeli Mbokazi due to lower body injuries, with Sergio Oregel Jr. questionable. Portland Timbers miss Alexander Aravena (hip), Alex Bonetig (upper body), Juan Mosquera, and Ian Smith (both foot/ankle).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.