Chicago Fire — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Chicago Fire come into this MLS meeting with the stronger overall outlook against Portland Timbers. The assessment gives the hosts a clear advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this is not an entirely one-sided contest. Chicago Fire are expected to have the better platform to control the match and create the more convincing attacking situations, while Portland Timbers remain capable of keeping the game competitive.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That points to a match shaped by attacking intent rather than a cautious tactical battle, with Portland Timbers potentially able to exploit spaces even if Chicago Fire carry the greater threat. The most prominent scoreline is 2:1 to Chicago Fire, while 1:1 and 3:1 also reflect the range of plausible outcomes. Overall, the hosts hold the clearer edge, but the likelihood of goals from both sides makes a narrow and competitive result more credible than a routine victory.
What matters before kick-off
Player Availability for Matchday 20
Chicago Fire are without André Franco and Mbekezeli Mbokazi due to lower body injuries, with Sergio Oregel Jr. questionable. Portland Timbers miss Alexander Aravena (hip), Alex Bonetig (upper body), Juan Mosquera, and Ian Smith (both foot/ankle).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.