Seattle Sounders — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 24.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.1% / 34.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.10 → now 3.90 |
| W2 | was 4.10 → now 4.33 |
Match preview
Seattle Sounders host Real Salt Lake in an MLS fixture scheduled for 01:30 UTC on 24 September 2026. The assessment gives Seattle Sounders a slight edge, with high confidence, although the outlook does not suggest a one-sided contest. The recommended result direction is 1X, meaning the hosts are favoured to avoid defeat while a draw remains a realistic outcome.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, and both Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake are considered likely to score. That points toward an entertaining contest in which defensive control may be difficult for either side to maintain. The leading scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting both the possibility of a balanced draw and a narrow home win. Overall, Seattle Sounders hold the clearer side of the prediction, but Real Salt Lake remain capable of contributing to the score and keeping the result competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Dejan Joveljic unavailable for Seattle
Seattle Sounders forward Dejan Joveljic will miss the match against Real Salt Lake due to international duty with Serbia.
Real Salt Lake missing key players
Real Salt Lake playmaker Diego Luna underwent knee meniscus surgery and is expected to miss roughly six months. Additionally, Juan Manuel Sanabria and Luc de Fougerolles are away on international duty.
Rescheduled fixture from April
The match between the Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake was originally scheduled for April, but was postponed due to Seattle's run in the CONCACAF Champions Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.