Seattle Sounders — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 20.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.7% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:2
- 02.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Austin FC 1:3
- 17.07.2026 home Portland Timbers 1:5
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 02.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 26.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:3
- 23.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away St. Louis City 0:3
This season: Seattle Sounders at home vs Austin FC away
| Metric | Seattle Sounders · at home | Austin FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–3 | 0–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 2.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.07.2026 Austin FC 3:1 Seattle Sounders
- 22.09.2025 Austin FC 2:1 Seattle Sounders
- 29.06.2025 Seattle Sounders 2:0 Austin FC
- 14.07.2024 Austin FC 0:1 Seattle Sounders
- 03.03.2024 Seattle Sounders 0:0 Austin FC
- 31.08.2023 Austin FC 1:2 Seattle Sounders
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Seattle Sounders have a slight but well-supported edge over Austin FC in this MLS matchup. The assessment points toward a relatively balanced contest, but the home side is better positioned to control the game, particularly through the advantage of playing in Seattle. Austin FC remain capable of making the match competitive, so the gap between the teams should not be overstated.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a narrow Seattle Sounders victory a plausible scenario, although a draw also fits the overall balance of the forecast. The main scorelines indicated are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting a contest in which the hosts have more ways to edge ahead but are not expected to dominate throughout. Austin FC should have opportunities of their own, especially if they can exploit open phases during the match.
What matters before kick-off
Seattle Sounders availability list
Seattle Sounders face extensive squad absences ahead of the match, with Paul Arriola, Pedro de la Vega, Hassani Dotson, Jesús Ferreira, Yeimar Gómez Andrade, Jordan Morris, and Nikola Petkovic all ruled out.
Austin FC squad availability
In Austin FC's official availability report, midfielder Owen Wolff was ruled out due to an ankle injury.
Recent MLS results for both sides
Seattle Sounders enter the match following a 2-0 home defeat against Vancouver Whitecaps, while Austin FC fell 2-1 to FC Dallas in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.