Minnesota United FC — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 20.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.7% / 76.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Diego FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:2
- 23.05.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:1
- 02.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 26.07.2026 away New England Revolution 1:4
- 23.07.2026 away Charlotte 2:2
- 18.07.2026 away Nashville SC 0:1
This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs Atlanta United FC away
| Metric | Minnesota United FC · at home | Atlanta United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–2 | 1–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.78 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 11% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings
- 05.05.2024 Atlanta United FC 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 30.05.2019 Atlanta United FC 3:0 Minnesota United FC
- 01.04.2018 Minnesota United FC 0:1 Atlanta United FC
- 04.10.2017 Atlanta United FC 2:3 Minnesota United FC
- 12.03.2017 Minnesota United FC 1:6 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Minnesota United FC meet Atlanta United FC in an MLS match where the home side hold a clear, though not overwhelming, edge. The available assessment points to Minnesota United FC as the stronger team, but the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be treated as decisive before kickoff. Atlanta United FC remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly in an open match.
The game is expected to carry a high-scoring profile, with both Minnesota United FC and Atlanta United FC likely to find the net. That combination could produce an entertaining and balanced contest despite the hosts being rated more strongly overall. The projected scorelines include a draw as well as narrow and more controlled home wins, reflecting uncertainty around the final margin. Minnesota United FC appear better placed, while Atlanta United FC have a reasonable attacking path into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Atlanta United availability updates
Midfielder Jay Fortune is out with a hamstring injury, Mauricio Amaro is unavailable due to visa processing, and Will Reilly is listed as questionable with an ankle issue. Enea Mihaj returns to the squad following a red card suspension.
Recent official results
Atlanta United enter the fixture following a 2-1 victory over Red Bull New York that snapped an eight-match winless run. Minnesota United coming off a 1-1 draw away at Real Salt Lake on August 15.
Minnesota United Year 10 celebration match
Minnesota United is hosting the game as a Year 10 Celebration Match marking a decade in Major League Soccer. The fixture serves as a rematch of Minnesota's first-ever MLS home game in 2017 against Atlanta United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.