Los Angeles Galaxy — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 20.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.2% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.1% / 28.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:1
- 02.08.2026 home FC Dallas 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 18.07.2026 home Los Angeles FC 0:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 02.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:4
- 26.07.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Orlando City 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Portland Timbers 3:1
This season: Los Angeles Galaxy at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 2–4–4 | 6–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.10 | 2.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 78% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.07.2026 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 29.06.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 29.05.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy 0:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 30.06.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 0:3 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 22.04.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy 4:3 San Jose Earthquakes
- 03.03.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 1:3 Los Angeles Galaxy
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Los Angeles Galaxy have a slight edge over San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the teams. The available assessment points toward an open game rather than a tightly controlled one, with attacking exchanges likely to shape the rhythm. Los Angeles Galaxy are favoured narrowly, but the margin is not strong enough to overlook San Jose Earthquakes.
The strongest signal is for both teams to score, consistent with the high-scoring outlook. That makes a balanced draw a realistic possibility, while a narrow result for either side also fits the broader picture. Los Angeles Galaxy may have enough of an advantage to prevail at home, but San Jose Earthquakes retain a credible route into the match if they can match the hosts in attack. Overall, this looks more likely to be decided through chances at both ends than by defensive control.
What matters before kick-off
Hirving Lozano home debut
Mexican international Hirving 'Chucky' Lozano, who recently joined LA Galaxy on loan, was named to the starting lineup against the San Jose Earthquakes.
Miki Yamane transfers to Urawa Red Diamonds
LA Galaxy agreed to transfer defender Miki Yamane to Japanese J1 League club Urawa Red Diamonds.
106th California Clásico
The match between LA Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes marks the 106th edition of the California Clásico across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.