SE Palmeiras SP — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.4% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 5.50 |
Match preview
SE Palmeiras SP have a slight edge over Sao Paulo FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a clear prediction. The available assessment places the hosts marginally ahead, with the match expected to produce a medium level of scoring.
The possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced, so the game could develop in either direction. The most likely scoreline indications are 1:0, 2:0, and 1:1, suggesting that a narrow home win or a draw are the main scenarios under consideration. Sao Paulo FC SP remain sufficiently competitive to make the outcome uncertain, while SE Palmeiras SP hold the more favorable position in the assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Palmeiras unbeaten streak
In the Campeonato Brasileiro, Palmeiras is undefeated in nine consecutive matches against São Paulo. This streak includes four straight victories in their recent league encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.