SE Palmeiras SP — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
SE Palmeiras SP
2nd place · 53 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Mirassol 1:1
- 23.08.2026 home Vasco 4:1
- 15.08.2026 away Fluminense 2:3
- 09.08.2026 home Internacional 0:0
Sao Paulo FC SP
10th place · 33 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:0
- 30.08.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Coritiba 1:1
- 08.08.2026 away Gremio 1:2
This season: SE Palmeiras SP at home vs Sao Paulo FC SP away
| Metric | SE Palmeiras SP · at home | Sao Paulo FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–1 | 2–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 0.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Sao Paulo FC SP 0:1 SE Palmeiras SP
- 05.10.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:3 SE Palmeiras SP
- 11.05.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 18.08.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 30.04.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 26.10.2023 SE Palmeiras SP 5:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SE Palmeiras SP have a slight edge over Sao Paulo FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the teams. The home side may be better placed to control the match, but the available signal does not suggest a decisive advantage. A medium-scoring game appears the most reasonable overall expectation.
The scoring outlook remains balanced. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so the match could develop either through a narrow Palmeiras victory or a more even exchange. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 and 2:0 in favour of SE Palmeiras SP, with 1:1 also a credible outcome. That range reflects a match where the hosts have the clearer edge, but where Sao Paulo FC SP remain capable of keeping the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
Palmeiras unbeaten streak
Palmeiras enter the Choque-Rei derby against São Paulo unbeaten in their last 12 head-to-head encounters in regular time, recording eight wins and four draws.
São Paulo mid-week schedule
São Paulo face Palmeiras in the middle of their Copa Sudamericana quarter-final tie against Boca Juniors, having lost the first leg 1-0 in Buenos Aires.
Luciano injury concern for São Paulo
São Paulo forward Luciano suffered a thigh muscle injury during their mid-week continental match in Argentina and began treatment ahead of the derby.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.