Santos FC SP — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.5% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 66.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.1% / 20.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Santos FC SP
12th place · 32 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Internacional 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Corinthians 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Vasco 3:0
- 09.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:2
Cruzeiro EC MG
6th place · 42 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Vasco 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 09.08.2026 home Mirassol 3:1
This season: Santos FC SP at home vs Cruzeiro EC MG away
| Metric | Santos FC SP · at home | Cruzeiro EC MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 5–4–4 | 5–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Cruzeiro EC MG 0:0 Santos FC SP
- 07.12.2025 Santos FC SP 3:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 10.08.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:2 Santos FC SP
- 14.09.2023 Santos FC SP 0:3 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 06.05.2023 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:1 Santos FC SP
- 24.11.2019 Santos FC SP 4:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP and Cruzeiro EC MG meet in Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, while the moderate confidence suggests that the balance between the teams should be treated with caution. Santos FC SP will have home advantage, but Cruzeiro EC MG carries a slight lean in the market signal, making the visitors’ ability to avoid defeat a relevant angle.
The match is projected to produce a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring remaining uncertain rather than strongly expected. The most plausible scorelines indicate a close contest, ranging from a 1:1 draw to narrow wins for either side. That range reflects the limited separation between Santos FC SP and Cruzeiro EC MG, and points to a match where small details could shape the outcome. Overall, a tight game with opportunities at both ends appears more likely than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Santos' Sudamericana Victory
Prior to facing Cruzeiro in matchday 27, Santos secured a 2–0 victory over Atlético Mineiro in CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
Cruzeiro's Win Over Athletico
In their previous fixture in Serie A, Cruzeiro earned a 3–1 victory against Athletico Paranaense.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.