Santos FC SP — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.7% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.10 → now 2.88 |
| W2 | was 2.40 → now 2.50 |
Match preview
Santos FC SP and Cruzeiro EC MG meet in Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, while the moderate confidence suggests that the balance between the teams should be treated with caution. Santos FC SP will have home advantage, but Cruzeiro EC MG carries a slight lean in the market signal, making the visitors’ ability to avoid defeat a relevant angle.
The match is projected to produce a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring remaining uncertain rather than strongly expected. The most plausible scorelines indicate a close contest, ranging from a 1:1 draw to narrow wins for either side. That range reflects the limited separation between Santos FC SP and Cruzeiro EC MG, and points to a match where small details could shape the outcome. Overall, a tight game with opportunities at both ends appears more likely than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Santos FC player absences
Santos FC face Cruzeiro without forward Gabriel Barbosa and defender Gonzalo Escobar due to suspensions, while Neymar remains sidelined recovering from a thigh injury.
Everton Cebolinha available for Santos
Newly signed winger Everton Cebolinha trained fully with Santos FC and is available to make his debut against Cruzeiro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.