Chapecoense SC — SC Internacional RS: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.6% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 76.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.9% / 67.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.40 → now 4.00 |
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
| W2 | was 2.20 → now 1.95 |
Match preview
Chapecoense SC face SC Internacional RS in Brasileiro Serie A with the visitors holding a slight edge. The assessment is moderate rather than decisive, suggesting a competitive match in which SC Internacional RS have somewhat stronger prospects, while Chapecoense SC remain capable of keeping the contest close. The available signal points toward an outcome that favors the visitors avoiding defeat.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination points to an open but balanced encounter rather than a one-sided performance. Chapecoense SC may have opportunities to contribute to the score, while SC Internacional RS appear better placed to make the difference if the match remains finely poised. A draw is also a credible possibility, so the overall picture is one of a narrow away advantage rather than a clear prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A round 27 match
Chapecoense host Internacional on September 12, 2026, at Arena Condá in round 27 of the Brazilian Série A.
Internacional squad availability issues
Internacional face defensive absences as first-choice goalkeeper Sergio Rochet is injured, while defenders Matheus Bahia, Braian Nahuel Aguirre and Victor Gabriel are suspended.
Injuries for Chapecoense
Chapecoense are sidelined without forwards Rafael Carvalheira and Robert, defender João Paulo, and midfielder Max due to injury.
Chapecoense recent win against Corinthians
In their previous fixture, Chapecoense defeated Corinthians 2-1 away, securing their first-ever victory at the Neo Química Arena.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.