Botafogo FR RJ — Red Bull Bragantino SP: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.1% / 64.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ and Red Bull Bragantino SP appear evenly matched ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a sustained difference in quality.
The match is expected to produce a medium-scoring pattern, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible scenario, while the home side has a slight edge in the broader result outlook. The most plausible scorelines indicate a closely fought game, with a level finish or a narrow victory for either team both remaining consistent with the balance of the matchup.
What matters before kick-off
Brasileirão Round 27 fixture
Botafogo host Red Bull Bragantino at Estádio Nilton Santos for round 27 of the Brazilian Serie A. Heading into the match, Red Bull Bragantino sit 9th in the standings with 35 points, while Botafogo occupy 14th place with 31 points.
Recent form for both teams
Botafogo enter the match winless in their last three fixtures, having drawn 0-0 at home against Palmeiras in their previous match. Red Bull Bragantino come off back-to-back league defeats, most recently losing 3-2 at home to Bahia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.