Mirassol FC SP — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.2% / 19.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Mirassol FC SP
17th place · 28 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Coritiba 2:1
- 02.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
- 30.08.2026 home Palmeiras 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Santos 1:1
- 16.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 1:5
EC Vitoria BA
13th place · 32 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home Gremio 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Bahia 0:2
- 16.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:0
- 09.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
This season: Mirassol FC SP at home vs EC Vitoria BA away
| Metric | Mirassol FC SP · at home | EC Vitoria BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 5–4–4 | 0–4–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.31 | 0.62 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.46 | 2.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 22.03.2026 EC Vitoria BA 1:0 Mirassol FC SP
- 29.11.2025 EC Vitoria BA 2:0 Mirassol FC SP
- 26.07.2025 Mirassol FC SP 1:1 EC Vitoria BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Mirassol FC SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight edge over EC Vitoria BA, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a relatively balanced contest. The available outlook leans toward the home side, but the gap between the teams is not considered decisive. That makes the match one where Mirassol FC SP may have the stronger overall position, while EC Vitoria BA remain credible opponents.
The scoring projection is for a medium-scoring game, with the most prominent scorelines indicating a narrow home win or a draw. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so there is no clear basis for expecting either a wide-open match or a clean defensive performance from both sides. A 1-1 draw and a 2-1 result for Mirassol FC SP are among the plausible paths, with 2-0 also included in the outlook. Overall, the analysis gives Mirassol FC SP the advantage, but only by a modest margin.
What matters before kick-off
Vitória Squad News
Vitória head coach Jair Ventura remains without injured players Ramon, Baralhas and Martínez. However, defender Cacá returns from suspension, and midfielder Rúben Ismael has rejoined the squad.
Recent Results for Both Teams
Both teams enter round 27 of the Brasileirão following wins in their previous fixtures: Mirassol earned a 2-1 away victory against Coritiba, while Vitória defeated Grêmio 1-0 at home.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.