Mirassol FC SP — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.7% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Mirassol FC SP meet EC Vitoria BA in Brasileiro Serie A, with the hosts holding a slight edge according to the available assessment. The low confidence attached to that view suggests a closely contested match rather than a clear mismatch. Mirassol FC SP may have the stronger overall position, but EC Vitoria BA remain capable of keeping the contest balanced, particularly if they stay compact and limit the home side’s opportunities.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, while the prospect of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. That leaves several plausible match patterns: a cautious draw, a narrow home victory, or a result shaped by Mirassol FC SP converting their chances more efficiently. The projected scorelines include 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1, reflecting the uncertainty around the final outcome. Overall, the matchup points toward a competitive game in which Mirassol FC SP have a modest advantage, but EC Vitoria BA should not be discounted.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.