Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.4% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 72.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
15th place · 28 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Bragantino 0:1
- 16.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:3
- 08.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
18th place · 25 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Fluminense 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Palmeiras 1:4
- 16.08.2026 home Santos 0:3
- 09.08.2026 away Bahia 0:0
This season: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS at home vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ away
| Metric | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · at home | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–2 | 0–5–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 20.11.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 19.07.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 28.07.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 14.04.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 03.12.2023 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS face CR Vasco da Gama RJ in a Brasileiro Serie A meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge, though the assessment carries only moderate confidence. The X2 signal points toward CR Vasco da Gama RJ avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a decisive gap between the teams. A draw remains a realistic outcome within that overall reading.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, with the main scoreline possibilities including 1:1, 0:1 and 1:2. That range reflects a contest that could remain close while still offering CR Vasco da Gama RJ opportunities to make the difference. The outlook on both teams scoring is finely balanced, so either a shared contribution on the scoresheet or a narrower away result fits the available indications. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS should remain competitive, but the visitors have the marginally stronger overall position in this preview.
What matters before kick-off
Relegation battle in Série A
Heading into round 27 of the Brasileirão, Grêmio sit 15th in the standings with 28 points, while Vasco da Gama occupy 17th place with 25 points.
Grêmio's home record against Vasco
Grêmio are undefeated at home against Vasco da Gama in their last 15 encounters in all competitions, winning 13 of those matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.