Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.4% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 71.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.63 → now 3.30 |
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 2.25 |
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS and CR Vasco da Gama RJ meet in Brasileiro Serie A on 12 September 2026 in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts neither a decisive advantage nor a clear disadvantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. The expected profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with some attacking involvement but without a strong basis for anticipating a high-scoring spectacle.
The scoring outlook between the teams is balanced: both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so either side could contribute without that outcome being a firm expectation. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1 and 0:0, while a 1:2 result also remains within the indicated range. Overall, the signal leans toward the 1X result, meaning Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS avoiding defeat, but the evenly matched assessment points to a game where the margin between the teams may be limited.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
Grêmio are without Cristian Pavón due to suspension, alongside injured trio Dodi, Jovane Cabral, and Francis Amuzu. Vasco da Gama remain without Jair, Brenner, Mateus Carvalho, and Cuiabano.
Recent domestic and continental schedule
Grêmio suffered a 1-0 defeat away to Vitória in their previous Série A fixture, while Vasco da Gama fell 1-0 to Fluminense in the league before playing out a 0-0 draw away against Santa Fe in the Copa Sudamericana.
Contrasting home and away forms
Grêmio have earned 24 of their 28 league points at home this season, whereas Vasco da Gama remain winless on the road in Série A.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.