Coritiba FC PR — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.8% |
| 12 | 68.6% | |
| X2 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Coritiba FC PR
7th place · 37 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Mirassol 1:2
- 01.09.2026 away Remo 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Corinthians 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:1
- 09.08.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:1
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 45 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 30.08.2026 home Fluminense 3:3
- 25.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 3:2
- 15.08.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 09.08.2026 away Santos 2:0
This season: Coritiba FC PR at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | Coritiba FC PR · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–5 | 5–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 CA Paranaense PR 2:0 Coritiba FC PR
- 01.10.2023 Coritiba FC PR 2:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 14.05.2023 CA Paranaense PR 3:2 Coritiba FC PR
- 16.10.2022 CA Paranaense PR 1:0 Coritiba FC PR
- 19.06.2022 Coritiba FC PR 0:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 09.01.2021 Coritiba FC PR 0:0 CA Paranaense PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR and CA Paranaense PR meet in Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that looks evenly matched overall. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage, while the visitors carry only a slight edge in the broader outcome picture. Confidence is moderate, so the match should be approached as a balanced encounter rather than one with a strongly favoured side.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with neither an open goal-filled game nor a particularly defensive stalemate standing out as the clear expectation. Both teams scoring is also finely balanced, making either a shared contribution on the scoresheet or a more cautious match plausible. The most representative scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, which underline the narrow margins between Coritiba FC PR and CA Paranaense PR.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A round 27 match
Coritiba host Athletico Paranaense at Estádio Couto Pereira in round 27 of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
League standings
Ahead of the derby, Athletico Paranaense occupy 3rd place with 45 points, while Coritiba sit in 7th place with 37 points.
400th historical derby
This fixture marks the 400th match in the history of the Atletiba derby. In the first-round fixture of the current season, Athletico Paranaense won 2-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.