Coritiba FC PR — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.8% |
| 12 | 68.6% | |
| X2 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.25 → now 3.00 |
| X | was 3.20 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 2.35 → now 2.55 |
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR and CA Paranaense PR meet in Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that looks evenly matched overall. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage, while the visitors carry only a slight edge in the broader outcome picture. Confidence is moderate, so the match should be approached as a balanced encounter rather than one with a strongly favoured side.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with neither an open goal-filled game nor a particularly defensive stalemate standing out as the clear expectation. Both teams scoring is also finely balanced, making either a shared contribution on the scoresheet or a more cautious match plausible. The most representative scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, which underline the narrow margins between Coritiba FC PR and CA Paranaense PR.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A round 27 match
Coritiba host Athletico Paranaense at Estádio Couto Pereira in round 27 of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
League standings
Ahead of the derby, Athletico Paranaense occupy 3rd place with 45 points, while Coritiba sit in 7th place with 37 points.
400th historical derby
This fixture marks the 400th match in the history of the Atletiba derby. In the first-round fixture of the current season, Athletico Paranaense won 2-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.