Atletico Mineiro MG — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.4% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
8th place · 36 pts after 25Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Internacional 0:0
- 16.08.2026 home Gremio 3:0
- 08.08.2026 away Remo 2:2
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 45 pts after 26Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 3:3
- 22.08.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Palmeiras 3:2
- 09.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:1
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs Fluminense FC RJ away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | Fluminense FC RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–1 | 2–6–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.73 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 04.10.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 3:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 11.05.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 3:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 25.08.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 0:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 04.05.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 2:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 29.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:0 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Mineiro MG have a slight edge over Fluminense FC RJ in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, with the assessment showing high confidence in the home side’s overall position. That advantage appears narrow rather than decisive, so the match could remain competitive throughout. The main signal supports the hosts avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a realistic outcome.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring game, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. The suggested scorelines reflect that uncertainty, with 1:1 and 1:0 among the most plausible scenarios, while 0:0 also fits the cautious profile. Atletico Mineiro MG may have the stronger platform, but Fluminense FC RJ are not clearly separated from the contest, making game management and the opening goal potentially important factors.
What matters before kick-off
Recent continental results
Atlético Mineiro entered the match following a 2-0 defeat to Santos in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals. Fluminense came into the game after securing a 2-0 victory against Platense in the first leg of the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals.
Atlético Mineiro medical updates
According to Atlético Mineiro's match guide, Everson, Ruan, and Tomás Pérez were listed in the club's medical department ahead of the game.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.