SE Palmeiras SP — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.2% |
| 12 | 78.0% | |
| X2 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
SE Palmeiras SP
2nd place · 57 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Gremio 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Mirassol 1:1
- 23.08.2026 home Vasco 4:1
EC Bahia BA
6th place · 46 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Athletico-PR 1:2
- 15.09.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Bragantino 3:2
- 30.08.2026 home Internacional 3:2
- 23.08.2026 away Vitoria 2:0
This season: SE Palmeiras SP at home vs EC Bahia BA away
| Metric | SE Palmeiras SP · at home | EC Bahia BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 9–3–1 | 6–4–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.69 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 EC Bahia BA 1:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 28.09.2025 EC Bahia BA 1:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 27.04.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 0:1 EC Bahia BA
- 20.11.2024 EC Bahia BA 1:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 07.07.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 2:0 EC Bahia BA
- 28.10.2023 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 EC Bahia BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SE Palmeiras SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available signal points toward an advantage for the hosts, with the overall scoring outlook indicating a potentially open match.
EC Bahia BA still have a meaningful attacking role in the forecast, as both teams are considered likely to score. The combination of a high-scoring outlook and the listed likely results points to a match that could remain competitive even with SE Palmeiras SP holding the stronger position. Overall, the analytical picture favors SE Palmeiras SP, while allowing for EC Bahia BA to contribute on the scoresheet.
What matters before kick-off
Palmeiras head coach Abel Ferreira is suspended
Palmeiras head coach Abel Ferreira is suspended for the match against Bahia following a decision by the Superior Court of Sports Justice (STJD). Assistant manager João Martins will take charge of the team on the touchline.
Bahia's recent defeat ended an 11-match unbeaten streak
Prior to the international break, Bahia suffered a 2-1 away defeat to Athletico Paranaense. The loss brought an end to an 11-match unbeaten run for the visitors.
Palmeiras hold head-to-head advantage over Bahia
Palmeiras have historically held the upper hand in meetings between the two teams, winning six of their last ten encounters with Bahia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.