Fluminense FC RJ — Coritiba FC PR: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 34.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.8% / 42.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.4% / 64.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 48 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Corinthians 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:3
- 06.09.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 3:3
- 22.08.2026 home Remo 2:1
Coritiba FC PR
9th place · 38 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Vasco 0:5
- 12.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:3
- 06.09.2026 home Mirassol 1:2
- 01.09.2026 away Remo 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Corinthians 2:1
This season: Fluminense FC RJ at home vs Coritiba FC PR away
| Metric | Fluminense FC RJ · at home | Coritiba FC PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 10–3–1 | 5–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 Coritiba FC PR 1:1 Fluminense FC RJ
- 26.11.2023 Fluminense FC RJ 2:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 24.07.2023 Coritiba FC PR 2:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 20.08.2022 Fluminense FC RJ 5:2 Coritiba FC PR
- 01.05.2022 Coritiba FC PR 3:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 20.01.2021 Coritiba FC PR 3:3 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fluminense FC RJ go into this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the overall confidence level is moderate. The available assessment points toward the home side as the preferred outcome, giving Fluminense FC RJ the stronger position in the matchup. Coritiba FC PR face a demanding task, with the balance of the preview favoring the hosts.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with the most likely scorelines listed as 2:0, 1:0 and 2:1. The assessment also treats both teams scoring as evenly balanced, so there is no clear indication that both sides will find the net. Overall, the analytical signal favors Fluminense FC RJ, but the moderate confidence suggests this should be viewed as an indication of the matchup rather than a certain result.
What matters before kick-off
Fluminense debut new shirt sponsor
Fluminense will showcase the Superscore brand on their kit starting with this match against Coritiba at the Maracanã.
Facial recognition mandated for Maracanã entry
Fluminense confirmed that facial biometrics is required for all supporters entering the Maracanã for this Round 29 fixture against Coritiba.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.