CA Paranaense PR — Atletico Mineiro MG: Win probabilities, 08.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.7% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.6% / 23.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.10.2026
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 49 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Bahia 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Coritiba 3:3
- 06.09.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 30.08.2026 home Fluminense 3:3
- 25.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 3:2
Atletico Mineiro MG
7th place · 43 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Bragantino 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Fluminense 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
This season: CA Paranaense PR at home vs Atletico Mineiro MG away
| Metric | CA Paranaense PR · at home | Atletico Mineiro MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 9–4–1 | 4–2–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.79 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 08.12.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 16.11.2024 CA Paranaense PR 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 02.09.2023 CA Paranaense PR 1:1 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 30.04.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 07.08.2022 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:3 CA Paranaense PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Paranaense PR have a slight edge heading into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with Atletico Mineiro MG, with the available assessment carrying high confidence. The matchup points toward a competitive contest in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, although the difference between the sides is not overwhelming.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with a reasonable prospect of multiple goals without indicating an especially open encounter. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so either outcome remains plausible in that area. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:1, reflecting a match that could remain close throughout. Overall, the assessment favors CA Paranaense PR while leaving room for Atletico Mineiro MG to take something from the contest.
What matters before kick-off
Athletico-PR home streak and recent form
Athletico-PR enters the round 29 match following a 2–1 victory against Bahia prior to the international break, maintaining a 12-match home unbeaten run at Arena da Baixada.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.