Cruzeiro EC MG — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 08.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 47.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.10.2026
Cruzeiro EC MG
6th place · 45 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Vitoria 3:1
- 13.09.2026 away Santos 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Vasco 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:1
Sao Paulo FC SP
11th place · 36 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Santos 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Internacional 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Palmeiras 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:0
- 30.08.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
This season: Cruzeiro EC MG at home vs Sao Paulo FC SP away
| Metric | Cruzeiro EC MG · at home | Sao Paulo FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–4–3 | 2–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.71 | 0.79 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Sao Paulo FC SP 4:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 31.08.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 1:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 13.04.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 15.09.2024 Cruzeiro EC MG 0:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 02.06.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 02.11.2023 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG have a slight edge over Sao Paulo FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence attached to that assessment suggests a relatively balanced contest. The available signal points toward the hosts as the marginally stronger side, but the gap between the teams is not substantial enough to expect a clear-cut match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0 among the likely scorelines. The possibility of both teams scoring is described as essentially balanced, so there is no strong indication in either direction on that aspect. Overall, Cruzeiro EC MG enter with a modest home advantage, while Sao Paulo FC SP remain well placed to make the match competitive.
What matters before kick-off
São Paulo injury updates
São Paulo forward Luciano suffered a right adductor injury during the match against Santos, while left-back Iago Borduchi and midfielder Danielzinho are also sidelined due to injuries.
Cruzeiro match rest and schedule
Cruzeiro return to action following a two-week international break, having previously beaten Vitória 3-1 away in their last match.
First-round match result
In the previous league meeting earlier this season, São Paulo secured a 4-1 home victory over Cruzeiro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.