Botafogo FR RJ — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 07.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.4% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 69.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.0% / 38.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.10.2026
Botafogo FR RJ
12th place · 35 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Mirassol 0:2
- 16.09.2026 home Gremio 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Palmeiras 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:3
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
16th place · 31 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Coritiba 5:0
- 12.09.2026 away Gremio 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Fluminense 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Cruzeiro 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Palmeiras 1:4
This season: Botafogo FR RJ at home vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ away
| Metric | Botafogo FR RJ · at home | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 5–6–3 | 1–5–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.43 | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:2 Botafogo FR RJ
- 05.11.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 3:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 12.07.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:2 Botafogo FR RJ
- 06.11.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 3:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 29.06.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 06.11.2023 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:0 Botafogo FR RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ face CR Vasco da Gama RJ in Brasileiro Serie A, with the available assessment pointing to a competitive match and a slight edge for the visitors. Confidence in that lean is moderate, so the overall picture remains relatively balanced rather than strongly one-sided.
The scoring outlook suggests an open game, with both Botafogo FR RJ and CR Vasco da Gama RJ likely to find the net. The projected scorelines include 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1, reinforcing the possibility of a close contest where either side can influence the result. Overall, the analysis gives CR Vasco da Gama RJ a slight advantage, while the X2 signal indicates support for an outcome in which the visitors avoid defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Andrés Gómez Suspended
CR Vasco da Gama top scorer Andrés Gómez is unavailable for the clash against Botafogo FR as he serves an automatic suspension for collecting three yellow cards.
Tite's Second Match in Charge of Botafogo
Botafogo FR manager Tite takes charge of his second match with the club following a 2-0 defeat against Mirassol in his debut game.
Brasileirão Head-to-Head Record
In Campeonato Brasileiro history, Botafogo FR and CR Vasco da Gama have met 60 times, with Botafogo winning 18 matches, Vasco winning 24, 18 ending in draws, and both clubs scoring exactly 74 goals each.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.