EC Vitoria BA — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 07.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.5% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.10.2026
EC Vitoria BA
13th place · 33 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Mirassol 2:2
- 08.09.2026 home Gremio 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Bahia 0:2
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 18 pts after 27Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Internacional 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 30.08.2026 away Gremio 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:0
This season: EC Vitoria BA at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | EC Vitoria BA · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 9–1–4 | 1–4–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.86 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 21% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 Chapecoense SC 1:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 14.10.2018 Chapecoense SC 0:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 06.06.2018 EC Vitoria BA 1:0 Chapecoense SC
- 16.11.2017 Chapecoense SC 2:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 22.07.2017 EC Vitoria BA 1:2 Chapecoense SC
- 01.10.2016 Chapecoense SC 1:4 EC Vitoria BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests a measured assessment rather than an overwhelming advantage. Chapecoense SC face a difficult task against hosts who hold the stronger overall outcome signal. The available scoring assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, so the game could develop without requiring an unusually high number of goals.
The both-teams-to-score assessment is finely balanced, making it difficult to identify a clear expectation on whether both sides will find the net. The listed likely scorelines include controlled home victories alongside a draw, reinforcing the view that EC Vitoria BA have the edge while Chapecoense SC remain capable of keeping the contest competitive. Overall, the analysis favors the hosts, but the moderate confidence calls for a cautious interpretation rather than a definitive prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Serie A Round 29 fixture
Vitória and Chapecoense face each other in Round 29 of the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A at the Estádio Manoel Barradas (Barradão) in Salvador.
Recent team results
Vitória enters the match following a 3-1 defeat to Cruzeiro, while Chapecoense comes off a 1-1 away draw against Atlético Mineiro.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.