Santos FC SP — CR Flamengo RJ: Win probabilities, 08.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.8% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 78.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.10.2026
Santos FC SP
8th place · 41 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Remo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Internacional 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Corinthians 1:0
CR Flamengo RJ
1st place · 60 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Corinthians 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Remo 1:0
- 02.09.2026 home Mirassol 2:0
- 30.08.2026 home Botafogo RJ 3:0
This season: Santos FC SP at home vs CR Flamengo RJ away
| Metric | Santos FC SP · at home | CR Flamengo RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–4 | 8–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.43 | 1.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 CR Flamengo RJ 3:1 Santos FC SP
- 09.11.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 3:2 Santos FC SP
- 17.07.2025 Santos FC SP 1:0 CR Flamengo RJ
- 01.11.2023 CR Flamengo RJ 1:2 Santos FC SP
- 25.06.2023 Santos FC SP 2:3 CR Flamengo RJ
- 26.10.2022 CR Flamengo RJ 3:2 Santos FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP face CR Flamengo RJ in a Brasileiro Serie A meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the overall confidence in that assessment is moderate. The matchup points toward an open contest, with the scoring outlook described as high-scoring and both teams likely to find the net.
The main statistical signals favor CR Flamengo RJ, while Santos FC SP still have a credible attacking route in a game expected to produce chances at both ends. The likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:2, and 0:2, reflecting a range from a balanced draw to a controlled away victory. Overall, the picture is one of a competitive match with a slight edge for CR Flamengo RJ, rather than a strongly one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Flamengo Team News and Absences
Flamengo manager Leonardo Jardim is without Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Ayrton Lucas, and Evertton Araújo due to injuries, while Léo Ortiz was granted leave for the birth of his daughter and Guillermo Varela missed out following international duty with Uruguay.
Santos Squad News and Returning Players
Santos welcome back Luan Peres from suspension and Gabriel Bontempo from international duty, while Neymar Jr returns to the matchday squad after recovering from a thigh injury. However, Arthur and Gabriel Brazão are sidelined, and Everton Cebolinha cannot play against parent club Flamengo due to a contractual clause.
Form and Standings Context
League leaders Flamengo head to Vila Belmiro on a seven-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, holding a three-point lead at the top of Serie A. Santos enter the fixture in eighth place after a six-match undefeated run in the league.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.