SE Palmeiras SP — Atletico Mineiro MG: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
SE Palmeiras SP
1st place · 44 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.07.2026 away Coritiba 3:1
- 31.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Flamengo RJ 3:0
- 17.05.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:1
- 10.05.2026 away Remo 1:1
Atletico Mineiro MG
13th place · 25 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.07.2026 home Bahia 1:1
- 31.05.2026 away Vasco 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Corinthians 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Mirassol 3:1
- 10.05.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:1
This season: SE Palmeiras SP at home vs Atletico Mineiro MG away
| Metric | SE Palmeiras SP · at home | Atletico Mineiro MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–0 | 3–0–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.78 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 20% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.01.2026 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 04.12.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 0:3 SE Palmeiras SP
- 20.07.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 3:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 28.09.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 2:1 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 18.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 0:4 SE Palmeiras SP
- 19.10.2023 SE Palmeiras SP 0:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SE Palmeiras SP have a slight edge over Atletico Mineiro MG in this Brasileiro Serie A matchup, although the low confidence level points to a contest with no clear separation. Palmeiras may be better placed to control the game, but Atletico Mineiro remain capable of keeping the balance and making the result difficult to predict.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. That leaves several plausible paths for the match, ranging from a narrow Palmeiras victory to a level scoreline. The most likely results indicate a close game, with 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0 all consistent with the overall assessment. Palmeiras hold the stronger position in the analysis, but the evidence supports caution rather than a firm expectation of victory.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.