SE Palmeiras SP — Atletico Mineiro MG: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SE Palmeiras SP have a slight edge over Atletico Mineiro MG in this Brasileiro Serie A matchup, although the low confidence level points to a contest with no clear separation. Palmeiras may be better placed to control the game, but Atletico Mineiro remain capable of keeping the balance and making the result difficult to predict.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. That leaves several plausible paths for the match, ranging from a narrow Palmeiras victory to a level scoreline. The most likely results indicate a close game, with 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0 all consistent with the overall assessment. Palmeiras hold the stronger position in the analysis, but the evidence supports caution rather than a firm expectation of victory.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.