CR Flamengo RJ — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.7% |
| 12 | 79.4% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.8% / 70.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
CR Flamengo RJ
2nd place · 37 pts after 18Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 4:0
- 30.05.2026 home Coritiba 3:0
- 24.05.2026 home Palmeiras 0:3
- 17.05.2026 away Athletico-PR 1:1
- 10.05.2026 away Gremio 1:0
Sao Paulo FC SP
12th place · 25 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:2
- 01.06.2026 away Remo 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 16.05.2026 away Fluminense 1:2
- 10.05.2026 away Corinthians 2:3
This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs Sao Paulo FC SP away
| Metric | CR Flamengo RJ · at home | Sao Paulo FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–1 | 2–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.01.2026 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:1 CR Flamengo RJ
- 06.11.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 12.07.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 2:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 04.08.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:0 CR Flamengo RJ
- 18.04.2024 CR Flamengo RJ 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 07.12.2023 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:0 CR Flamengo RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ come into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear overall advantage over Sao Paulo FC SP, although the assessment remains one of moderate confidence rather than certainty. Flamengo are the stronger side in the available projection, and the market signal also points toward a home victory. That edge should make the hosts the more likely team to control the match and create the better opportunities.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game that may be decided without a prolonged goal exchange. The outlook for both teams to score is finely balanced, so Sao Paulo FC SP cannot be ruled out from contributing, even if Flamengo remain the more convincing side. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0 and 1-0 to CR Flamengo RJ, with 1-1 also included as a realistic alternative if Sao Paulo can resist the home pressure and take advantage of their opportunities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.