CR Flamengo RJ — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.7% |
| 12 | 79.4% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.8% / 70.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ come into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear overall advantage over Sao Paulo FC SP, although the assessment remains one of moderate confidence rather than certainty. Flamengo are the stronger side in the available projection, and the market signal also points toward a home victory. That edge should make the hosts the more likely team to control the match and create the better opportunities.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game that may be decided without a prolonged goal exchange. The outlook for both teams to score is finely balanced, so Sao Paulo FC SP cannot be ruled out from contributing, even if Flamengo remain the more convincing side. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0 and 1-0 to CR Flamengo RJ, with 1-1 also included as a realistic alternative if Sao Paulo can resist the home pressure and take advantage of their opportunities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.