EC Bahia BA — SC Corinthians SP: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.8% / 74.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
EC Bahia BA and SC Corinthians SP look evenly matched ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a balanced contest in which territorial control and the ability to manage key phases may be more important than sustained dominance from either team.
The match is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range, while both teams scoring remains difficult to separate. A 1-1 draw is one plausible scenario, although a narrow home win such as 1-0 or 2-1 also fits the broader assessment. EC Bahia BA may have a slight advantage from playing at home, but SC Corinthians SP have enough to keep the game competitive. The main expectation is therefore for a close encounter, with the result likely decided by small details rather than a clear gap in quality.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.