Red Bull Bragantino SP — Coritiba FC PR: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.0% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP meet Coritiba FC PR in the Brasileiro Serie A with the hosts holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment points to Red Bull Bragantino SP as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this advantage should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive gap. Coritiba FC PR remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can keep the match balanced through the early stages.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with a narrow home win among the more plausible outcomes. Both teams scoring is considered difficult to separate, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side converts its chances more efficiently. A controlled Red Bull Bragantino SP performance, producing a low-margin result, fits the available signals, while a draw is also within the range of realistic outcomes.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.