Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X2 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.0% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS face Fluminense FC RJ in a Brasileiro Serie A contest that appears finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched game, with moderate confidence rather than a strong preference for either side. Neither team is clearly established as dominant in the projection, so the match may be decided by small tactical details and how effectively each side manages periods of pressure.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains uncertain. A one-all draw is among the plausible outcomes, alongside a goalless match or a narrow Fluminense FC RJ victory. The 2X signal offers some support for the visitors avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the possibility of Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS taking advantage of home conditions. Overall, this looks like a cautious fixture in which a draw deserves serious consideration and the margin between the teams is likely to remain narrow.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.