Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.0% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
16th place · 21 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.07.2026 away Mirassol 1:2
- 30.05.2026 home Corinthians 1:3
- 23.05.2026 home Santos 3:2
- 17.05.2026 away Bahia 1:1
- 10.05.2026 home Flamengo RJ 0:1
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 32 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.07.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 01.06.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:1
- 23.05.2026 away Mirassol 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Vitoria 2:2
This season: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS at home vs Fluminense FC RJ away
| Metric | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · at home | Fluminense FC RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–2 | 2–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.01.2026 Fluminense FC RJ 2:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 03.12.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 03.08.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 02.11.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 2:2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 30.06.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 1:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 07.12.2023 Fluminense FC RJ 2:3 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS face Fluminense FC RJ in a Brasileiro Serie A contest that appears finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched game, with moderate confidence rather than a strong preference for either side. Neither team is clearly established as dominant in the projection, so the match may be decided by small tactical details and how effectively each side manages periods of pressure.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains uncertain. A one-all draw is among the plausible outcomes, alongside a goalless match or a narrow Fluminense FC RJ victory. The 2X signal offers some support for the visitors avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the possibility of Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS taking advantage of home conditions. Overall, this looks like a cautious fixture in which a draw deserves serious consideration and the margin between the teams is likely to remain narrow.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.