Cruzeiro EC MG — Botafogo FR RJ: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG host Botafogo FR RJ in the Brasileiro Serie A, with the available assessment giving Cruzeiro a slight edge. The confidence in that lean is low, so the matchup appears relatively open rather than strongly tilted toward the home side. Cruzeiro may have the benefit of playing at home, but Botafogo remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 identified as the most plausible scorelines. That range points to a game where the first goal could be particularly important, while a draw remains a realistic possibility. The expectation that both teams will score is evenly balanced, so neither a clean-sheet win for Cruzeiro nor goals at both ends should be treated as the only likely scenario. Overall, the home team has the marginal advantage, but Botafogo are close enough to keep the result uncertain until late in the match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.