Cruzeiro EC MG — Botafogo FR RJ: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Cruzeiro EC MG
8th place · 27 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Internacional 2:1
- 01.06.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 24.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Palmeiras 1:1
- 10.05.2026 away Bahia 2:1
Botafogo FR RJ
9th place · 26 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Vitoria 0:0
- 16.07.2026 home Santos 2:1
- 30.05.2026 away Bahia 1:2
- 23.05.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Corinthians 3:1
This season: Cruzeiro EC MG at home vs Botafogo FR RJ away
| Metric | Cruzeiro EC MG · at home | Botafogo FR RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–2 | 3–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 30.01.2026 Botafogo FR RJ 4:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 04.12.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:2 Botafogo FR RJ
- 03.08.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 0:2 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 28.07.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 0:3 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 14.04.2024 Cruzeiro EC MG 3:2 Botafogo FR RJ
- 03.12.2023 Botafogo FR RJ 0:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG host Botafogo FR RJ in the Brasileiro Serie A, with the available assessment giving Cruzeiro a slight edge. The confidence in that lean is low, so the matchup appears relatively open rather than strongly tilted toward the home side. Cruzeiro may have the benefit of playing at home, but Botafogo remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 identified as the most plausible scorelines. That range points to a game where the first goal could be particularly important, while a draw remains a realistic possibility. The expectation that both teams will score is evenly balanced, so neither a clean-sheet win for Cruzeiro nor goals at both ends should be treated as the only likely scenario. Overall, the home team has the marginal advantage, but Botafogo are close enough to keep the result uncertain until late in the match.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.