SCU Torreense — Sunderland AFC: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
11.5%
Home win
SCU Torreense
X
17.8%
Draw
W2
70.8%
Away win
Sunderland AFC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X288.5%
Both teams to score
Yes54.4%
Totals 2.5
Over64.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 29.2% |
| 12 | 82.2% | |
| X2 | 88.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Goal distribution model
SCU Torreense × Sunderland AFC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
8.3%
0:2
10.6%
0:3
8.6%
0:4
5.2%
0:5
2.5%
1
1:0
2.8%
1:1
8.3%
1:2
9.5%
1:3
7.7%
1:4
4.7%
1:5
2.3%
2
2:0
1.4%
2:1
3.5%
2:2
4.3%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
2.1%
2:5
1.0%
3
3:0
0.4%
3:1
1.0%
3:2
1.3%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.2%
4:2
0.3%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.0%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
0:210.6%
1:29.5%
0:38.6%
1:18.3%
0:18.3%
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.25 → now 7.50 |
| X | was 4.75 → now 5.00 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.