SC Heerenveen — SC Telstar: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.9% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 39.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Heerenveen go into this Eredivisie meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over SC Telstar. The assessment points to the hosts being stronger overall, although the moderate confidence suggests that the balance is not entirely one-sided. SC Telstar should still have opportunities to compete, particularly if they can take advantage of moments when SC Heerenveen leave space in the match.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the contest less suited to a cautious, low-tempo pattern and places importance on how each side manages transitions and defensive concentration. The most plausible scorelines are 2-1, 1-1 and 2-0, reflecting a match in which SC Heerenveen have the better chance of controlling the outcome, while SC Telstar remain capable of making the game competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Heerenveen availability issues
Midfielder Dirk Proper, alongside Marcus Linday and Mats Egbring, are set to miss the match due to injuries.
Both teams coming off defeats
Heading into this Eredivisie clash, Heerenveen lost 3-2 to AZ Alkmaar while Telstar suffered a 1-0 defeat against FC Twente.
Heerenveen's strong head-to-head record
Heerenveen hold the head-to-head advantage over Telstar after winning both league meetings last season, including a 3-0 home victory.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.