Excelsior Rotterdam — FC Utrecht: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Excelsior Rotterdam
5th place · 11 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 away Nijmegen 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Willem II 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nijmegen 0:0
- 15.08.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:2
FC Utrecht
17th place · 2 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 3:3
- 05.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:3
- 30.08.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:6
- 22.08.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 3:3
- 15.08.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 1:4
This season: Excelsior Rotterdam at home vs FC Utrecht away
| Metric | Excelsior Rotterdam · at home | FC Utrecht · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.86 | 2.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.61 | 1.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Excelsior Rotterdam 5:0 FC Utrecht
- 24.08.2025 FC Utrecht 4:1 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 27.01.2024 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:1 FC Utrecht
- 12.11.2023 FC Utrecht 2:2 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 25.01.2023 FC Utrecht 1:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 02.10.2022 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:1 FC Utrecht
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Excelsior Rotterdam hold a slight edge over FC Utrecht in this Eredivisie meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available indicators point towards a high-scoring game, with neither side expected to dominate consistently. Excelsior Rotterdam may have the stronger overall position, but FC Utrecht have enough attacking potential to remain a significant threat throughout.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes the match difficult to assess as a straightforward home win. A draw remains a credible outcome, while FC Utrecht could also take advantage if Excelsior Rotterdam leave space in transition. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2, reflecting the narrow balance between the sides and the expectation of goals at both ends. The safer reading is that Excelsior Rotterdam should avoid defeat, but the margin between the teams appears limited.
What matters before kick-off
Excelsior draw with NEC
Excelsior Rotterdam fought back to secure a 2-2 draw away against NEC Nijmegen in their rescheduled Eredivisie fixture on Tuesday evening, 8 September 2026.
Utrecht preview against Excelsior
Ahead of the match at Stadion Woudestein, FC Utrecht assistant coach Anthony Correia highlighted Excelsior's high intensity and stressed the importance of exploiting their weaknesses.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.