Excelsior Rotterdam — FC Utrecht: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.4% / 35.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Excelsior Rotterdam meet FC Utrecht in an Eredivisie fixture that points towards a competitive and open contest. The available assessment gives Excelsior Rotterdam a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the balance remains relatively delicate rather than decisive. A home advantage is the main factor separating the teams, with the draw also a realistic possibility.
The scoring outlook suggests an entertaining match with chances at both ends. Both teams are likely to score, which could make the game difficult to control for either defence and leave the result open deep into the match. Excelsior Rotterdam may have a narrow advantage in the overall assessment, but FC Utrecht remain capable of creating enough danger to avoid being outplayed. The most suitable reading is therefore support for the home side with protection against a draw, while expecting a high-scoring encounter rather than a cautious affair.
What matters before kick-off
Team news for both sides
Excelsior are expected to be without injured defender Simon Janssen and midfielder Noah Naujoks. FC Utrecht travel without midfielders Victor Jensen, Kevin Paredes, and Alonzo Engwanda.
Travel restriction enforced for FC Utrecht supporters
FC Utrecht restricted travel arrangements for their supporters attending the away match against Excelsior, requiring fans to travel strictly on official supporters' buses. The club imposed the measure following fan misconduct and pyrotechnics during their recent game against Go Ahead Eagles.
Strong early form for Excelsior
Excelsior entered Matchday 6 sitting fourth in the Eredivisie standings with 10 points from five matches. Meanwhile, FC Utrecht occupied 15th place after picking up just two points from their opening five league fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.