SC Cambuur — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.7% |
| 12 | 80.7% | |
| X2 | 79.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
SC Cambuur
18th place · 1 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Telstar 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Twente 1:4
- 23.08.2026 home Feyenoord 2:5
- 15.08.2026 away For Sittard 1:3
- 07.08.2026 home Excelsior 0:4
NEC Nijmegen
8th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Feyenoord 1:3
- 29.08.2026 away Zwolle 3:1
- 22.08.2026 home Excelsior 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Willem II 4:1
This season: SC Cambuur at home vs NEC Nijmegen away
| Metric | SC Cambuur · at home | NEC Nijmegen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–3 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 3.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.75 | 2.48 |
| xG against per match | 2.40 | 1.71 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 11.02.2023 NEC Nijmegen 0:0 SC Cambuur
- 04.11.2022 SC Cambuur 0:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 03.04.2022 SC Cambuur 1:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 26.11.2021 NEC Nijmegen 2:3 SC Cambuur
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Cambuur face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie with the visitors holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment is moderately confident rather than definitive, but NEC Nijmegen appear better placed to control the match and create the more consistent attacking threat. SC Cambuur will need to remain compact and make effective use of their opportunities, particularly if they are forced to defend for long periods.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That points to a contest in which SC Cambuur can contribute offensively even if NEC Nijmegen remain the stronger side. The most plausible scenarios include a narrow away win, such as 2-1, or a more controlled 2-0 result for NEC Nijmegen, while a 1-1 draw is also within the range of outcomes. The balance therefore favours NEC Nijmegen, but the attacking profile of the fixture leaves room for an unpredictable and competitive match.
What matters before kick-off
Squad availability for both sides
SC Cambuur are without the injured Wout Asselman and Daan Visser. NEC Nijmegen are missing Bram Nuytinck, Emre Mor, Deveron Fonville and Yassin Moslih through injury.
SC Cambuur's recent league result
SC Cambuur halted a four-match losing streak in the Eredivisie by securing a 2-2 draw away against Telstar in their previous fixture.
Previous high-stakes meeting
NEC Nijmegen defeated SC Cambuur 2-1 after extra time when the two teams met at this venue in the KNVB Beker semi-final in February 2024.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.