SC Cambuur — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.7% |
| 12 | 80.7% | |
| X2 | 79.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.00 → now 4.50 |
| X | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 1.53 → now 1.62 |
Match preview
SC Cambuur face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie with the visitors holding the clearer analytical advantage. The available assessment points towards NEC Nijmegen being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be treated as decisive. SC Cambuur will still have opportunities, particularly in a match expected to offer an open attacking contest.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination could make the game more unpredictable than the strength comparison alone suggests, as SC Cambuur’s attacking contribution may keep the contest competitive even if NEC Nijmegen create the better overall impression. The main signal is therefore a both-teams-to-score scenario, alongside a slight-to-clearer preference for NEC Nijmegen in the result assessment. A narrow away win and a draw both fit the broader match profile, while the overall expectation is for an active game rather than a tightly controlled defensive encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Player availability news
SC Cambuur are without injured players Wout Asselman and Daan Visser. NEC Nijmegen missing Bram Nuytinck, Emre Mor, Deveron Fonville, and Yassin Moslih through injury.
Recent league results
SC Cambuur coming off a 2-2 away draw against Telstar in their last Eredivisie fixture. NEC Nijmegen also played out a 2-2 draw at home against Excelsior in their previous league match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.