Fortuna Sittard — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.5% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 86.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Fortuna Sittard
7th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Den Haag 3:2
- 28.08.2026 away Groningen 3:2
- 22.08.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 0:2
- 15.08.2026 home Cambuur 3:1
- 08.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 2:2
Ajax Amsterdam
9th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
- 16.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Zwolle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
This season: Fortuna Sittard at home vs Ajax Amsterdam away
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard · at home | Ajax Amsterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.18 | 1.84 |
| xG against per match | 3.43 | 0.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Ajax Amsterdam 4:1 Fortuna Sittard
- 06.12.2025 Fortuna Sittard 1:3 Ajax Amsterdam
- 09.02.2025 Fortuna Sittard 0:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 18.09.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 5:0 Fortuna Sittard
- 10.03.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 Fortuna Sittard
- 03.09.2023 Fortuna Sittard 0:0 Ajax Amsterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fortuna Sittard face Ajax Amsterdam in the Eredivisie with the visitors holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment points to Ajax Amsterdam as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Fortuna Sittard are still expected to have opportunities, particularly in a match projected to offer an open attacking pattern.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes a controlled, low-event game less likely, with the balance instead favouring an encounter shaped by chances at both ends. The most plausible scorelines indicate an Ajax Amsterdam victory by a narrow or moderately comfortable margin, including 1:2, 0:2, or 1:3. Fortuna Sittard’s attacking threat means they may remain competitive, but Ajax Amsterdam appear better placed to turn the overall balance in their favour.
What matters before kick-off
Aaron Bouwman Injury for Ajax
Ajax defender Aaron Bouwman suffered a bruised lung in the match against PSV and is ruled out for the game against Fortuna Sittard.
Ajax Eredivisie Schedule Context
Ajax enter their Eredivisie matchday 6 away fixture against Fortuna Sittard following a 1-3 home loss to PSV.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.