Fortuna Sittard — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.5% |
| 12 | 83.3% | |
| X2 | 86.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.75 → now 6.25 |
| W2 | was 1.44 → now 1.40 |
Match preview
Fortuna Sittard face Ajax Amsterdam in the Eredivisie with the visitors holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment points to Ajax Amsterdam as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Fortuna Sittard are still expected to have opportunities, particularly in a match projected to offer an open attacking pattern.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes a controlled, low-event game less likely, with the balance instead favouring an encounter shaped by chances at both ends. The most plausible scorelines indicate an Ajax Amsterdam victory by a narrow or moderately comfortable margin, including 1:2, 0:2, or 1:3. Fortuna Sittard’s attacking threat means they may remain competitive, but Ajax Amsterdam appear better placed to turn the overall balance in their favour.
What matters before kick-off
Aaron Bouwman Injury for Ajax
Ajax defender Aaron Bouwman suffered a bruised lung in the match against PSV and is ruled out for the game against Fortuna Sittard.
Ajax Eredivisie Schedule Context
Ajax enter their Eredivisie matchday 6 away fixture against Fortuna Sittard following a 1-3 home loss to PSV.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.