PSV Eindhoven — Sparta Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.2% |
| 12 | 90.9% | |
| X2 | 13.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.7% / 1.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
PSV Eindhoven
2nd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Ajax 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Utrecht 6:1
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
- 15.08.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
Sparta Rotterdam
11th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Zwolle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Excelsior 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Utrecht 3:3
- 14.08.2026 away Telstar 3:1
- 09.08.2026 home Feyenoord 0:1
This season: PSV Eindhoven at home vs Sparta Rotterdam away
| Metric | PSV Eindhoven · at home | Sparta Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 3.36 | 2.03 |
| xG against per match | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Sparta Rotterdam 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 09.08.2025 PSV Eindhoven 6:1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 18.05.2025 Sparta Rotterdam 1:3 PSV Eindhoven
- 05.10.2024 PSV Eindhoven 2:1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 05.05.2024 PSV Eindhoven 4:2 Sparta Rotterdam
- 08.10.2023 Sparta Rotterdam 0:4 PSV Eindhoven
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
PSV Eindhoven head into this Eredivisie meeting with a clear advantage over Sparta Rotterdam. The assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with a high level of confidence behind that view. PSV Eindhoven are expected to control much of the match through sustained attacking pressure, while Sparta Rotterdam may need to defend compactly and look for opportunities when possession turns over.
The scoring outlook suggests an open contest rather than a tightly restrained game, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That leaves room for Sparta Rotterdam to contribute to the score even though PSV Eindhoven remain the stronger side on the overall assessment. The most plausible scorelines indicate a home victory with several goals involved, including 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0. The key question is whether Sparta Rotterdam can limit the hosts’ attacking output, or whether PSV Eindhoven’s superiority will be reflected by a comfortable margin.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
PSV are missing injured players Alassane Plea, Jerdy Schouten, and Kiliann Sildillia. Sparta Rotterdam will be without Shunsuke Mito and Max de Ligt through injury.
PSV's recent results
PSV secured a 3-1 victory away against Ajax in their previous Eredivisie fixture. Following that league match, they drew 1-1 against Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League.
Head-to-head statistics
Sparta Rotterdam are winless in their last 17 head-to-head matches against PSV Eindhoven. PSV have won each of the last eight consecutive meetings between the two sides.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.