PSV Eindhoven — Sparta Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 89.2% | |
| X2 | 16.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.4% / 1.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 81.7% / 18.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 64.4% / 35.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 45.2% / 54.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PSV Eindhoven go into this Eredivisie meeting with a clear advantage over Sparta Rotterdam. The available assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with the high confidence level indicating a substantial difference between the sides. That makes PSV Eindhoven the more convincing team in the main match outlook, particularly in a fixture where their attacking potential is expected to have a major influence.
The game is also projected to be high-scoring, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. This combination suggests an open contest rather than a cautious, low-event encounter, even though PSV Eindhoven remain the stronger side overall. The suggested scorelines of 3:0, 3:1 and 4:0 all reflect the same central expectation: a productive performance from PSV Eindhoven and a result shaped by their greater strength. Sparta Rotterdam may still have opportunities to contribute offensively, but the balance of the preview remains firmly with the hosts.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.