SC Freiburg — FK Jablonec: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
76.0%
Home win
SC Freiburg
X
15.5%
Draw
W2
8.5%
Away win
FK Jablonec
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X91.5%
Both teams to score
No51.0%
Totals 2.5
Over64.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.5% |
| 12 | 84.5% | |
| X2 | 24.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Goal distribution model
SC Freiburg × FK Jablonec
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
2.5%
0:2
1.0%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.1%
1:1
7.3%
1:2
2.7%
1:3
0.7%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
12.0%
2:1
9.0%
2:2
3.4%
2:3
0.8%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
10.2%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
6.5%
4:1
4.9%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.3%
5:1
2.5%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.0%
3:010.2%
1:09.1%
2:19.0%
3:17.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home M'gladbach 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Werder Bremen 4:1
- 16.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
FK Jablonec
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 away FC RFS 2:1
- 06.08.2026 home FC RFS 2:0
- 30.07.2026 home NK Varazdin 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 5.00 → now 5.50 |
| W2 | was 8.00 → now 9.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.