Atalanta BC — Pafos FC: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
73.2%
Home win
Atalanta BC
X
17.5%
Draw
W2
9.3%
Away win
Pafos FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X90.7%
Both teams to score
Yes51.7%
Totals 2.5
Over64.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.7% |
| 12 | 82.5% | |
| X2 | 26.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.7% / 76.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Goal distribution model
Atalanta BC × Pafos FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.5%
0:1
2.2%
0:2
1.2%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.4%
1:1
8.3%
1:2
3.0%
1:3
0.8%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.4%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
3.7%
2:3
1.0%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.5%
3:1
7.7%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
5.9%
4:1
4.8%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.9%
5:1
2.4%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.4%
3:09.5%
2:19.3%
1:08.4%
1:18.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Roma 1:2
- 31.08.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
Pafos FC
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 home FC Salzburg 3:3
- 06.08.2026 away FC Salzburg 0:1
- 30.07.2026 home HNK Hajduk Split 4:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.50 → now 5.00 |
| W2 | was 7.50 → now 9.00 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.