Brighton & Hove Albion — FK Kauno Zalgiris: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
96.8%
Home win
Brighton & Hove Albion
X
2.0%
Draw
W2
1.2%
Away win
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X98.8%
Both teams to score
No68.2%
Totals 2.5
Over86.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 98.8% |
| 12 | 98.0% | |
| X2 | 3.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.6% / 0.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
Goal distribution model
Brighton & Hove Albion × FK Kauno Zalgiris
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
0.4%
0:1
0.7%
0:2
0.1%
0:3
0.0%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
3.8%
1:1
1.0%
1:2
0.3%
1:3
0.0%
1:4
0.0%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
7.7%
2:1
3.0%
2:2
0.6%
2:3
0.1%
2:4
0.0%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
11.5%
3:1
4.5%
3:2
0.9%
3:3
0.1%
3:4
0.0%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
12.9%
4:1
5.1%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
11.6%
5:1
4.6%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
4:012.9%
5:011.6%
3:011.5%
6:08.7%
2:07.7%
Odds movement
| X | was 15.00 → now 19.00 |
| W2 | was 41.00 → now 29.00 |
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