Heart of Midlothian FC — FC Nordsjaelland: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
29.1%
Home win
Heart of Midlothian FC
X
24.2%
Draw
W2
46.7%
Away win
FC Nordsjaelland
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.8%
Both teams to score
Yes65.9%
Totals 2.5
Over64.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.3% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 70.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.5% / 14.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Goal distribution model
Heart of Midlothian FC × FC Nordsjaelland
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.5%
0:1
5.8%
0:2
6.3%
0:3
3.9%
0:4
1.8%
0:5
0.7%
1
1:0
4.3%
1:1
10.7%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
5.7%
1:4
2.7%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.8%
2:1
7.1%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
4.2%
2:4
2.0%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
1.8%
3:1
3.4%
3:2
3.2%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
1:29.2%
2:17.1%
2:26.7%
0:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Dundee 2:1
- 03.09.2026 away Hibernian 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home St Johnstone 2:1
FC Nordsjaelland
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 home Valur Reykjavik 5:0
- 06.08.2026 away Valur Reykjavik 2:0
- 30.07.2026 home GAIS 6:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.90 → now 3.20 |
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.80 |
| W2 | was 2.25 → now 2.05 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.